Estimated Reporting Date Symbol Revenue Estimate Current Q Operating Profit Estimate Current Q EPS Estimate Current Q EBITDA Estimate Current Q Revenue Estimate Next Q Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent Operating Profit Estimate Next Q EPS Estimate Next Q EBITDA Estimate Next Q Revenue Estimate Full Year Operating Profit Estimate Full Year EPS Estimate Full Year EBITDA Estimate Full Year Revenue Estimate Next Year Operating Profit Estimate Next Year EPS Estimate Next Year EBITDA Estimate Next Year 11/3/2008 ALVR 80.6 3.1 0.06 5.8 81.0 0.48% 2.4 0.05 4.6 292.6 5.6 0.16 -- 354.4 19.2 0.35 31.5 11/3/2008 AMT 401.6 157.0 0.14 265.6 409.1 1.87% 161.6 0.14 270.7 1,586.8 615.1 0.49 1,055.2 1,702.6 699.3 0.70 1,151.8 11/3/2008 AUDC 46.5 3.9 0.09 -- 47.9 2.99% 4.4 0.10 -- 183.7 15.1 0.35 -- 205.1 19.6 0.42 -- 11/3/2008 AXTI 18.0 (0.0) (0.02) -- 22.0 22.11% 3.1 0.06 -- 79.6 7.4 0.13 -- 87.0 8.4 0.19 -- 11/3/2008 BLKB 83.1 18.2 0.25 -- 86.9 4.59% 20.2 0.28 -- 312.0 71.1 0.97 -- 364.2 82.4 1.13 -- 11/3/2008 CRAY 54.3 (1.8) (0.05) -- 142.6 162.33% 21.0 0.69 -- 269.8 2.1 0.19 -- 255.0 3.9 0.21 -- 11/3/2008 EXTR 92.7 3.3 0.04 4.8 94.5 1.93% 3.6 0.05 5.0 380.1 13.7 0.20 23.1 404.7 23.6 0.30 -- 11/3/2008 GLBC 663.5 (22.0) (1.39) 62.0 661.3 -0.33% (18.0) (1.34) 66.3 2,613.5 (94.2) (5.59) 230.2 2,786.9 (58.3) (4.81) 291.7 11/3/2008 JCOM 62.9 27.0 0.41 29.5 64.1 1.89% 27.5 0.42 29.9 246.3 104.5 1.61 115.7 270.0 118.3 1.77 126.1 11/3/2008 LOOK 16.3 -- 0.00 0.5 18.9 15.98% -- 0.05 1.4 69.8 -- 0.10 4.0 78.7 -- 0.29 7.1 11/3/2008 MFLX 193.7 12.2 0.37 19.3 206.2 6.44% 14.3 0.39 22.1 709.4 57.0 1.66 83.2 829.1 55.6 1.56 85.7 11/3/2008 MSPD 39.4 2.2 0.07 -- 40.0 1.48% 2.6 0.09 -- 149.0 6.3 0.18 -- 164.2 11.7 0.40 -- 11/3/2008 MXWL 20.1 (3.8) (0.21) (2.9) 20.8 3.11% (3.6) (0.20) (2.8) 78.0 (14.9) (0.93) (10.7) 96.6 (8.2) (0.46) (3.8) 11/3/2008 PBI 1,602.3 288.0 0.70 361.0 1,721.4 7.43% 328.0 0.79 401.0 6,493.2 1,168.0 2.85 1,529.3 6,732.9 1,223.6 3.11 1,591.9 11/3/2008 RACK 70.5 (4.3) (0.07) 0.8 86.0 21.95% (1.8) (0.02) 6.1 281.5 (12.3) (0.15) 4.6 322.5 (4.2) 0.03 -- 11/3/2008 RDWR 25.4 (3.7) (0.14) -- 27.3 7.65% (1.6) (0.04) -- 98.9 (18.4) (0.78) -- 113.1 (6.0) (0.01) -- 11/3/2008 TKLC 108.9 13.7 0.16 -- 123.3 13.23% 19.6 0.23 -- 467.5 79.2 0.85 83.2 496.3 86.3 0.95 87.9 11/3/2008 TRID 33.3 (5.7) (0.11) (4.3) 30.1 -9.45% (7.5) (0.12) (6.6) 118.0 (30.6) (0.49) (35.9) 124.9 (32.7) (0.57) (35.3) 11/3/2008 VIA/B 3,318.3 692.5 0.55 788.4 4,409.1 32.87% 1,026.1 0.90 1,132.3 14,669.8 3,082.0 2.51 3,462.5 14,946.1 3,149.1 2.64 3,524.4 11/4/2008 AMSC 41.1 (3.1) (0.09) (1.1) 45.7 11.02% (2.0) (0.07) (0.2) 178.5 (8.0) (0.34) 3.5 255.0 14.3 0.11 19.4 11/4/2008 ACLS 51.3 (22.3) (0.23) (17.9) 55.4 7.98% (20.1) (0.21) (15.0) 266.7 (66.8) (0.73) (48.8) 240.2 (73.7) (0.67) (52.9) 11/4/2008 DMRC 4.7 (3.3) 0.10 0.8 4.6 -2.13% (0.4) 0.10 0.8 19.5 -- 0.63 4.9 21.6 0.7 0.62 5.4 11/4/2008 NILE 68.8 3.2 0.16 4.8 117.7 70.99% 10.7 0.48 12.5 330.8 21.3 1.00 27.2 364.0 23.7 1.13 34.4 11/4/2008 SPSS 74.6 12.1 0.44 -- 80.5 7.96% 15.7 0.55 -- 309.0 52.5 1.91 72.8 318.2 61.1 2.08 81.6 11/4/2008 VNO 660.6 302.2 0.32 361.6 674.8 2.15% 321.1 0.40 385.4 2,647.0 903.1 3.97 1,498.6 2,737.0 1,118.0 2.18 1,510.7
Monday, November 3, 2008
Earnings Estimate Cheat Sheet – Nov 3 & Nov 4, 2008
You ain’t seen nothing yet
September earnings reports were lackluster to say the least. Guidance came down. But just wait. October earnings are going to be shameful. Companies with October quarter ends such as Cisco, Dell, and Hewlett Packard will be lugging two months of a horrendous IT spending environment. I would anticipate they will all miss earnings forecasts, probably by a lot. Indications from the trenches are that spending did not improve in the month of October (why would it have) and that customers are increasingly pushing for more financing (naturally). Last month, we saw the effect of a slow September on companies reporting. This month we will see two months of major hesitance reflected. Business is still very much reduced from normal seasonality and numbers for these companies have not been reduced enough. I think they're shorts into their reports. I'm presently short Cisco and Dell and I'll probably have HPQ on too by the time you're done reading this.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The centre does not hold
I was looking at the ted spread – the difference between interest rates on LIBOR and t-bills. Yesterday, the fed cut 50 bps. The market has been blistering higher. I was surprised to see that the ted spread hasn't budged much since it's initial decline a couple of weeks ago. And frankly, looking at it, it hasn't really come down at all relative to historical rates. It's basically where it was in earlyish September, when the trouble really began. If we were out of the woods, it would be dramatically lower. I'm looking at Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG). It's down 50% today. Their credit rating is in jeopardy, their portfolio is very precariously poised here. Essentially a big downdraft in the stock market would wipe them out. They're an insurance company. Again, I'm struck by the inevitable leaks. As the government tries to plug holes, new ones open up. This problem is systemic and they're trying to fix it company by company. By trying to treat the symptoms and not the problem, they create new symptoms. You cannot fix a leverage problem by offering more leverage. AIG was loaned 80 billion then came back for 40 more. What if they need to come back again? There won't be a choice, will there. What these companies need is risk management, not a continuance. There is too much credit in the system. It will correct over time. Prolonging the inevitable will only prolong the illness. Think about it. The worst managed companies that were unable to survive are being given the most aid. Mismanagement is being rewarded. How is that a good thing? Anyway, as I was thinking to myself that the market is rallying but the central problem remains, Yeats popped into my head. Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?