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Friday, July 25, 2008

NAND memory is a mess here

There's still a lot of capex cuts flowing through the industry here. I've been saying notions of Q4 recovery for memory capex were going to fade as NAND took another big dip in pricing and demand... and it's happening now. Sandisk said they'd cut capex quite a bit and pushed out some expansion plans. Hynix said they'd shutter some US capacity and maybe look to sell the unit. Samsung's memory comments last night were pretty bleak. Samsung is the port in the storm for the industry -- they've been spending aggressively through the downturn -- expect that to change as reality sets in.

Lam is going to have to throw in the towel on a December recovery. After that, I don't know yet. Possibly all these memory capacity cuts will set the stage for a good second half of 2009. That's a ways out. For now I suggest letting the bad news flow.

Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) 3Q:2008 results

Varian is a semicap with a lot of memory exposure. As the memory market has been under extreme pressure for most of the year I've been saying sell VSEA, LRCX, MTSN, FORM, KLAC... they're all much more memory dependent than the historical norms. It's been biting most of them in the ass. Varian is no exception.

The current quarter was fine. The outlook was dismal. They guided to revenues of 130-140mm with the street at 176mm and earnings of break even with the street looking for 24 cents. The stock charts to roughly 23.1 where I'll look to cover.

Western Digital (WDC) 4Q:2008 results

Western Digital (WDC) reported better than expected numbers for the quarter but guided gross margins to 19.3% for next quarter -- the street was assuming over 21% on slightly better revenue. The net of it is an EPS outlook a dime below the street.

Though channel inventory was worked down across the industry, OEM pricing came through worse as a result of the availability of drives while negotiating was in process.

I'd suggested shorting this stock in the mid and high 30s. I wouldn't really be a buyer until its under 25.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Earnings Estimate Cheat Sheet: July 23, 2008 - July 24, 2008

Estimated Reporting Date 

Symbol 

Revenue Estimate Current Q 

Operating Profit Estimate Current Q 

EPS Estimate Current Q 

EBITDA Estimate Current Q 

Revenue Estimate Next Q 

Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent

Operating Profit Estimate Next Q 

EPS Estimate Next Q 

EBITDA Estimate Next Q 

Revenue Estimate Full Year 

Operating Profit Estimate Full Year 

EPS Estimate Full Year 

EBITDA Estimate Full Year 

Revenue Estimate Next Year 

Operating Profit Estimate Next Year

EPS Estimate Next Year 

EBITDA Estimate Next Year 

7/23/2008 

AEIS 

83.4  

5.1  

0.10  

8.1  

85.3  

2.35% 

8.4  

0.14  

11.7  

343.8  

32.1  

0.54  

43.7  

381.8  

49.4  

0.86  

62.7  

7/23/2008 

AMZN 

3,955.4  

157.8  

0.26  

286.0  

4,231.3  

6.98% 

171.4  

0.28

295.7  

19,599.7  

881.6  

1.50  

1,348.2  

24,318.5  

1,223.6  

2.10  

1,754.3  

7/23/2008 

ARW 

4,038.0  

161.0  

0.77  

181.5  

4,141.1  

2.55% 

153.6  

0.72  

174.0  

16,504.9  

666.7  

3.15  

730.1  

17,232.3  

717.7  

3.42  

788.4  

7/23/2008 

ATMI 

92.3  

14.3  

0.32  

21.2  

99.5

7.82% 

16.2  

0.34  

24.5  

388.3  

63.8  

1.36  

90.6  

433.3  

75.3  

1.56  

96.2  

7/23/2008 

BIDU 

112.5  

34.9  

0.97  

47.2  

135.3  

20.20% 

42.7  

1.22  

57.2  

470.7  

149.1  

4.15  

195.1  

748.6  

245.5  

6.61  

312.1  

7/23/2008 

CDNS 

316.2  

43.0  

0.14  

64.6  

412.8  

30.56%

137.1  

0.40  

158.7  

1,511.6  

390.4  

1.16  

482.5  

1,582.6  

410.8  

1.32  

562.2  

7/23/2008 

CTXS 

387.0  

81.5  

0.36  

88.4  

403.2  

4.19% 

90.1  

0.39  

92.7  

1,620.3  

357.5  

1.59  

431.5  

1,890.0  

455.4  

1.95  

526.5  

7/23/2008 

DGII 

46.5  

0.9  

0.04  

3.3  

49.4  

6.22% 

3.5  

0.09  

6.2  

183.5  

13.1  

0.40  

22.5  

215.7  

18.2  

0.52  

28.1  

7/23/2008 

EQIX 

170.0  

16.7  

0.14  

66.7  

178.5  

5.00% 

19.3  

0.18  

70.8  

696.2  

73.7  

0.74  

279.1  

860.2  

138.5  

1.99  

362.9  

7/23/2008 

FFIV 

161.4  

23.7  

0.22  

46.6  

169.1  

4.78% 

26.9

0.24  

50.0  

643.7  

96.9  

0.87  

186.7  

749.3  

130.8  

1.12  

233.4  

7/23/2008 

GSIC 

181.6  

(19.9)

(0.26)

(1.0)

188.1  

3.61% 

(17.1)

(0.23)

2.4  

1,000.8  

(1.6)

0.01  

73.9  

1,176.6  

16.0  

0.20  

97.1  

7/23/2008 

IKAN 

30.1  

(0.3)

0.01  

-- 

31.7  

5.40% 

(0.5)

0.00  

-- 

124.9  

(1.1)

0.03  

-- 

145.4  

1.3  

0.10  

-- 

7/23/2008 

ISIL 

217.0  

60.2  

0.38  

61.5  

220.6  

1.68% 

63.8  

0.40  

66.6  

871.9  

249.1  

1.59  

249.6  

945.5  

280.5  

1.80  

289.5  

7/23/2008 

JAKK 

136.8  

8.8  

0.22  

16.1  

339.9  

148.41% 

72.0  

1.50  

77.3  

906.1  

119.9

2.91  

146.6  

939.1  

130.4  

3.09  

154.3  

7/23/2008 

LSI 

665.5  

66.5  

0.09  

-- 

693.4  

4.19% 

77.8  

0.11  

-- 

2,752.8  

303.2  

0.43  

370.1  

2,910.4  

352.5  

0.48  

413.5  

7/23/2008 

MTSN 

39.7  

(9.8)

(0.15)

(12.0)

40.0  

0.65% 

(9.0)

(0.17)

(13.0)

173.7  

(28.6)

(0.45)

(27.0)

227.0  

3.3  

0.16  

9.5  

7/23/2008 

MLNX 

27.8  

7.0  

0.22  

-- 

30.2  

8.73% 

9.1  

0.28  

-- 

115.7  

31.7  

1.01  

29.6  

147.6  

42.9  

1.31  

43.0  

7/23/2008 

NTGR 

196.0  

18.5  

0.35  

-- 

213.9  

9.10% 

21.8  

0.41  

-- 

834.4  

82.7  

1.59  

86.0  

960.6  

100.5  

1.87

106.0  

7/23/2008 

QCOM 

2,708.8  

1,039.5  

0.55  

1,077.8  

2,712.8  

0.15% 

1,028.7  

0.54  

1,054.4  

10,466.0  

4,033.3  

2.15  

4,382.8  

11,888.0  

4,784.7  

2.46  

5,297.8  

7/23/2008 

QUIK 

8.5  

(2.2)

(0.07)

-- 

9.0  

5.88% 

(1.0)

(0.04)

-- 

39.2  

(3.5)

(0.12)

-- 

42.0

0.6  

0.01  

-- 

7/23/2008 

SANM 

1,823.5  

52.6  

0.04  

81.2  

1,867.9  

2.44% 

55.8  

0.05  

85.1  

7,967.5  

214.3  

0.15  

321.7  

7,741.3  

239.7  

0.23  

355.7  

7/23/2008 

SKX 

360.3  

22.4  

0.34  

29.0  

447.2  

24.12% 

45.9  

0.66  

52.5  

1,532.5  

140.0  

2.04  

161.2  

1,704.0

162.0  

2.32  

185.1  

7/23/2008 

STMP 

21.0  

1.7  

0.11  

1.9  

21.2  

1.02% 

2.8  

0.17  

3.1  

87.0  

9.3  

0.63  

10.6  

96.2  

10.5  

0.69  

12.7  

7/23/2008 

SY 

262.5  

53.1  

0.43  

76.7  

269.3  

2.59% 

58.9  

0.48  

83.2  

1,097.2  

243.9  

1.97  

341.7  

1,165.4  

273.9  

2.18

366.4  

7/23/2008 

TER 

321.0  

30.7  

0.17  

49.0  

332.6  

3.61% 

42.4  

0.21  

59.0  

1,298.9  

143.3  

0.74  

221.3  

1,412.6  

198.5  

0.99  

269.0  

7/23/2008 

TQNT 

127.7  

8.3  

0.07  

17.3  

146.7  

14.81% 

15.9  

0.11  

24.8  

547.3  

52.3  

0.38  

87.3  

624.7  

81.6  

0.51  

117.2

7/23/2008 

UIS 

1,329.9  

37.0  

0.03  

-- 

1,378.5  

3.66% 

58.0  

0.05  

-- 

5,511.7  

223.6  

0.16  

583.1  

5,450.5  

279.8  

0.33  

638.5  

7/23/2008 

TZOO 

21.0  

1.1  

(0.02)

1.4  

21.3  

1.35% 

1.3  

(0.01)

1.8  

83.9  

4.5  

(0.10)

6.5  

90.1  

11.7  

0.31  

12.3  

7/23/2008

WFR 

557.9  

263.3  

1.00  

290.1  

616.3  

10.47% 

295.3  

1.14  

317.9  

2,361.0  

1,107.1  

4.30  

1,208.7  

2,953.1  

1,404.8  

5.24  

1,524.9  

7/23/2008 

XLNX 

483.8  

126.8  

0.37  

151.5  

496.5  

2.62% 

132.7  

0.39  

156.2  

1,977.3  

527.3  

1.53  

607.4  

2,127.6  

588.3  

1.74

690.3  

7/24/2008 

ARTG 

39.3  

1.2  

0.01  

3.4  

40.8  

3.94% 

2.1  

0.02  

4.1  

161.6  

9.5  

0.09  

-- 

193.0  

21.5  

0.17  

29.2  

7/24/2008 

AUO 

4,066.0  

534.6  

0.57  

-- 

4,024.0  

-1.03% 

505.4  

0.53  

-- 

16,830.8  

2,571.8  

2.83  

5,523.9  

17,722.0  

2,358.3  

2.09  

5,658.3

7/24/2008 

AVID 

211.0  

(6.5)

(0.10)

(0.2)

219.8  

4.17% 

2.8  

0.08  

12.7  

881.7  

2.9  

0.12  

32.8  

933.7  

28.3  

0.70  

59.2  

7/24/2008 

BMC 

432.5  

106.0  

0.43  

109.1  

469.5  

8.54% 

131.6  

0.51  

130.3  

1,933.4  

553.9  

2.15  

629.8  

2,070.6  

606.3  

2.45  

705.0

7/24/2008 

BKHM 

61.5  

(4.2)

(0.04)

(0.8)

65.2  

5.90% 

(2.0)

(0.02)

0.5  

234.4  

(21.0)

(0.18)

(2.0)

269.9  

0.5  

0.00  

19.0  

7/24/2008 

CCMP 

97.6  

11.3  

0.39  

16.0  

99.5  

1.93% 

14.1  

0.44  

19.0  

385.0  

50.5  

1.68  

74.5  

427.2  

65.5  

2.10  

89.0  

7/24/2008

CHRT 

455.5  

8.0  

0.03  

-- 

474.4  

4.16% 

12.0  

0.06  

-- 

1,822.2  

10.3  

0.17  

599.4  

1,987.9  

121.3  

0.39  

755.7  

7/24/2008 

COHU 

50.0  

(2.1)

(0.01)

-- 

56.5  

13.00% 

1.6  

0.06  

-- 

220.4  

2.7  

0.22  

-- 

261.0  

27.7  

0.81  

-- 

7/24/2008 

CYMI 

123.4  

15.7  

0.39  

22.0

118.5  

-4.00% 

12.8  

0.34  

18.0  

491.2  

64.5  

1.56  

91.7  

536.3  

85.6  

2.04  

105.4  

7/25/2008 

ENWV 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

#VALUE! 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

7/24/2008 

EPIC 

132.2  

22.0  

0.21  

22.3  

139.9  

5.85% 

25.8  

0.26  

27.2  

536.2  

89.6  

0.90  

93.3

582.3  

109.4  

1.10  

112.1  

7/24/2008 

ESIO 

61.7  

0.1  

0.03  

1.6  

60.0  

-2.76% 

0.2  

0.04  

0.7  

256.1  

5.8  

0.27  

13.6  

281.0  

18.9  

0.60  

26.1  

7/24/2008 

FALC 

23.5  

5.1  

0.07  

-- 

25.0  

6.25% 

5.7  

0.08  

-- 

103.1  

25.2  

0.34  

-- 

131.2  

34.2  

0.47  

-- 

7/24/2008

FLEX 

8,297.2  

285.0  

0.28  

402.3  

8,916.0  

7.46% 

317.9  

0.31  

435.2  

35,590.9  

1,282.1  

1.25  

1,766.6  

39,388.4  

1,512.7  

1.47  

2,010.3  

7/24/2008 

IM 

8,582.4  

97.4  

0.35  

114.6  

8,785.0  

2.36% 

108.1  

0.40  

121.8  

35,891.0  

470.0  

1.72  

545.4  

37,884.6

534.5  

1.96  

598.9  

7/24/2008 

ISSI 

59.8  

0.5  

0.08  

-- 

62.7  

4.73% 

1.2  

0.08  

-- 

244.0  

3.1  

0.30  

-- 

263.9  

6.2  

0.35  

-- 

7/24/2008 

IWOV 

62.5  

10.7  

0.17  

-- 

63.2  

1.26% 

11.0  

0.17  

-- 

257.1  

44.8  

0.71  

-- 

286.1  

53.8  

0.82  

-- 

7/24/2008 

JNPR 

852.2

198.1  

0.27  

249.2  

888.4  

4.25% 

211.2  

0.29  

261.5  

3,500.1  

835.4  

1.13  

1,009.0  

4,122.4  

1,053.2  

1.39  

1,219.8  

7/24/2008 

KMT 

732.4  

92.5  

0.84  

114.7  

655.4  

-10.52% 

67.2  

0.61  

90.7  

2,684.7  

304.7  

2.75  

394.9  

2,830.6  

340.4  

3.10  

430.4  

7/24/2008

LDIS 

7.3  

(8.4)

(0.26)

(8.1)

11.6  

58.93% 

(7.3)

(0.22)

(7.0)

42.0  

(29.7)

(0.92)

(28.5)

82.2  

(6.9)

(0.20)

(5.7)

7/24/2008 

LSCC 

58.1  

(0.5)

0.02  

-- 

60.3  

3.66% 

(0.4)

0.03  

-- 

236.3  

(0.1)

0.08  

13.9  

262.9  

13.7  

0.18  

29.7  

7/24/2008 

LVLT 

1,075.0

(31.3)

(0.10)

220.2  

1,080.0  

0.46% 

(6.0)

(0.09)

241.0  

4,349.0  

(112.8)

(0.39)

913.1  

4,599.0  

83.9  

(0.26)

1,109.2  

7/24/2008 

MCHP 

270.3  

89.0  

0.40  

111.4  

278.3  

2.97% 

93.7  

0.41  

115.2  

1,116.1  

373.5  

1.66  

462.8  

1,229.2  

420.7  

1.90  

524.9  

7/24/2008

MCRL 

68.9  

11.3  

0.11  

-- 

70.7  

2.51% 

13.0  

0.12  

-- 

278.4  

48.7  

0.48  

66.2  

303.8  

61.8  

0.59  

76.2  

7/24/2008 

MSCC 

128.8  

35.2  

0.34  

42.0  

133.2  

3.39% 

37.3  

0.35  

44.7  

512.1  

137.8  

1.32  

165.9  

579.1  

170.3  

1.61  

200.4  

7/24/2008 

NEM 

1,461.4

521.0  

0.47  

476.7  

1,566.3  

7.17% 

614.0  

0.58  

572.0  

6,725.6  

2,617.3  

2.39  

3,040.8  

7,412.0  

3,276.6  

2.93  

3,503.1  

7/24/2008 

NETL 

36.2  

8.1  

0.37  

-- 

37.6  

3.73% 

8.3  

0.37  

-- 

147.2  

33.0  

1.51  

-- 

175.7  

42.5  

1.77  

-- 

7/24/2008 

NTCT 

63.7  

7.4

0.11  

-- 

64.9  

1.88% 

8.3  

0.13  

-- 

265.9  

33.8  

0.54  

-- 

293.9  

45.0  

0.73  

-- 

7/24/2008 

PLXS 

441.2  

20.1  

0.39  

27.9  

461.6  

4.63% 

22.3  

0.43  

30.5  

1,812.4  

101.6  

1.88  

131.2  

2,005.6  

104.3  

2.01  

136.4  

7/24/2008 

POWI 

54.7  

12.1  

0.35  

14.1  

61.4

12.09% 

14.8  

0.42  

16.9  

230.1  

53.6  

1.53  

61.4  

267.1  

67.7  

1.86  

75.2  

7/24/2008 

PTIX 

10.8  

(0.4)

0.01  

-- 

11.6  

7.12% 

(0.0)

0.03  

-- 

45.4  

0.4  

0.15  

-- 

51.1  

2.6  

0.30  

-- 

7/24/2008 

QI 

660.1  

(479.5)

(1.47)

(367.0)

762.5  

15.51% 

(398.5)

(1.18)

(250.4)

2,843.8  

(2,423.1)

(7.72)

(1,494.7)

3,549.3  

(741.7)

(2.62)

437.2  

7/24/2008 

RMBS 

34.3  

(24.0)

(0.12)

-- 

31.4  

-8.46% 

(25.0)

(0.12)

-- 

154.6  

(99.9)

(0.48)

-- 

154.8  

(87.3)

(0.38)

-- 

7/24/2008 

RMTR 

15.3  

2.1  

0.05  

-- 

16.7  

9.37% 

1.5  

0.06  

-- 

63.7

7.1  

0.23  

-- 

80.8  

11.7  

0.34  

-- 

7/24/2008 

RSH 

908.5  

62.2  

0.26  

89.0  

933.8  

2.78% 

71.1  

0.31  

94.5  

4,117.4  

356.3  

1.58  

448.9  

4,052.3  

355.5  

1.56  

432.0  

7/24/2008 

RVBD 

77.0  

11.0  

0.11  

13.1  

81.9  

6.42% 

12.6  

0.13  

14.6  

321.8  

48.8  

0.49  

58.9

404.2  

79.0  

0.75  

93.3  

7/24/2008 

SIMG 

67.6  

3.0  

0.04  

5.2  

75.2  

11.37% 

6.1  

0.07  

10.2  

283.3  

17.4  

0.22  

29.8  

297.7  

21.1  

0.27  

36.5  

7/24/2008 

SIRF 

62.1  

(10.1)

(0.13)

-- 

69.9  

12.66% 

(0.9)

(0.00)

-- 

270.1  

(16.7)

(0.19)

-- 

294.1  

4.6  

0.24

-- 

7/24/2008 

SYNT 

102.5  

17.6  

0.38  

21.6  

107.4  

4.81% 

20.3  

0.43  

23.6  

420.9  

78.4  

1.76  

91.9  

509.8  

96.8  

1.99  

111.9  

7/24/2008 

TASR 

27.2  

0.9  

0.01  

3.8  

31.0  

14.16% 

4.7  

0.05  

6.4  

115.2  

15.8  

0.14  

18.0  

141.4  

35.2  

0.32  

34.9  

7/24/2008 

TRMB

377.5  

82.5  

0.45  

92.1  

338.1  

-10.45% 

65.5  

0.36  

72.2  

1,419.0  

282.2  

1.54  

318.1  

1,605.5  

333.8  

1.82  

359.1  

7/24/2008 

TXN 

3,440.1  

857.5  

0.45  

1,101.0  

3,429.2  

-0.32% 

849.2  

0.45  

1,120.8  

13,507.9  

3,345.6  

1.83  

4,319.7  

14,093.7  

3,624.7

1.97  

4,681.6  

7/24/2008 

UTEK 

32.0  

1.6  

0.10  

3.5  

32.2  

0.55% 

1.6  

0.10  

3.5  

130.2  

6.7  

0.44  

14.6  

148.7  

13.1  

0.69  

20.8  

7/24/2008 

VIGN 

46.5  

1.0  

0.10  

5.0  

46.4  

-0.14% 

1.0  

0.09  

4.0  

189.3  

7.0  

0.49  

12.0  

206.3  

15.4  

0.81  

-- 

7/24/2008 

VLCM

69.5  

5.9  

0.17  

7.2  

112.4  

61.75% 

25.7  

0.69  

27.4  

346.8  

58.5  

1.58  

64.9  

397.8  

68.9  

1.86  

73.7  

7/24/2008 

VLTR 

29.9  

6.1  

0.25  

6.8  

31.0  

3.44% 

6.3  

0.25  

6.9  

112.6  

21.5  

0.88  

23.9  

132.0  

27.7  

0.96  

28.5  

7/24/2008 

VSEA 

181.2  

27.7  

0.25

31.6  

183.3  

1.16% 

29.7  

0.27  

30.6  

873.8  

178.9  

1.54  

194.3  

916.2  

204.8  

2.07  

232.9  

7/24/2008 

WDC 

1,887.7  

199.5  

0.82  

305.4  

2,035.8  

7.85% 

241.0  

0.99  

354.8  

7,966.1  

1,016.4  

4.19  

1,414.7  

8,417.8  

1,012.1  

4.12  

1,467.4  

7/24/2008 

ZBRA 

253.9

42.5  

0.45  

51.3  

255.8  

0.72% 

43.9  

0.47  

52.2  

1,023.9  

177.0  

1.87  

208.9  

1,104.5  

199.9  

2.15  

232.4  

7/25/2008 

ENWV 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

#VALUE! 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

-- 

7/25/2008 

NFLX 

337.6  

32.1  

0.40  

41.8  

347.2  

2.84% 

29.6  

0.31  

38.3

1,374.0  

108.2  

1.23  

139.6  

1,624.8  

151.6  

1.54  

216.5  

7/25/2008 

RNOW 

34.3  

(2.6)

(0.05)

(0.8)

35.5  

3.59% 

(1.0)

(0.00)

1.0  

139.8  

(6.7)

(0.10)

1.9  

167.7  

5.2  

0.23  

14.2  

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