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Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Oracle (ORCL) might be a little weaker

Oracle is sort of perma-cheap. People always refer to the valuation when they talk about it. They've been doing a lot of acquisitions over the last 3 years that have really bolstered the product line and kept the growth going. I think perceived weakness could surprise the "cheap" contingent on the downside.

I've picked up some weakness in North America towards the end of the quarter. The pipeline is definitely weaker, or at least skinnier up front than it was in quarters past. The economy could very well be catching up with them. The terminally weak dollar has to be helping them and may offset what I'm seeing. Irregardless of the currency factor, underlying business is starting to soften and they've seen some pushouts recently.

I have to put in a disclaimer here: software isn't my strongest suit and this could be a stray data point that doesn't reveal the whole picture. That said, it might be worth taking a small shot on the short side in front of the quarter.

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