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Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Cisco (CSCO) - sometimes it's better to say nothing.

Cisco reports tonight. Last quarter, they took the bar down due to concerns about a slowing global economy. Despite what stock prices are saying, I don't think the macro environment has changed for the better. I wouldn't think there has been a dramatic change in visibility for them. I also don't think it's a disaster per se.

My concern is it comes down to some hair splitting over the quarter and I'm not prepared to make a call on it one way or the other... and that's why I'm quiet. Nothing else matters right now. There are two pivotal earnings reports in technology -- Intel and Cisco. Both tend to be the starting points for longer moves.

A good Cisco number is likely to put the SOX into the 410-420 range. I would think it will take more than a slight upside to break technology out. I'm not inclined to make a call before the number but I will have to make one after it.

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