Your email address:

Powered by FeedBlitz

Or add to your news reader: Add to My Yahoo! Add to Google

Monday, May 19, 2008

Sandisk presentation at JPMorgan

Contract and spot pricing firming up. iPhone 3G moving into center stage and is an important catalyst for soaking up supply

Think in second half of the year wiil be pickup in demand that will bring excess supply into balance. Expect consolidation in 200mm fabs and pushouts of 300mm capacity to further reduce supply.

Larger players – Samsung, Toshiba, Sandisk, continue to ramp supply. Expect 120-140% more megabytes this year vs last year. Plan to build 150-170% more than last year @ Sandisk.

Still in the depths of down cycle. Expect 2Q to be lowpoint. Not demand driven, its excess supply driven. Gross margins unsatisfactory for all suppliers.

Optimistic for long-term because of new markets we see.

Nothing very different fundamentally this year vs last year. Last year iPhone expectations were exaggerated perhaps. Nice thing about some of our markets is when you have a hit product that is able to make a big difference in terms of absorption of NAND supply can benefit from being in the market despite not serving the customer. Don't serve Apple but they soak up supply. Same with SSD, they think.

Typically don't discuss quarter intra-quarter… most of revenues come in second half and this will be the same. April continued to be very soft. In line with what we saw in first quarter. Good uptake in EMEA. $127 crude oil and $4.20 gasoline doesn't help consumer spending. Impact should not be underestimated. Nothing anyone had in their calculations 4 months ago.

Consumer electronics, mobile and computing are the major markets for products. Consumer elec opportunity is to replace optical media as we did with film and floppy drives. Not like digital cameras. Camcorders shifting to flash. Gaming shifting to flash. Continuing to provide a variety of markets not the size of mobile but still substantial.

Mobile relatively young. People still don't know why they need flash in their handsets. See opportunity for market to blossom… both iPhone and smartphone are big opportunities. Expect 16/32/64gb opportunities there. Attach rates improving and that's the mission. Successful in this market and will be several year opportunity.

Solid state disks have not yet begun. Crowd just showing up to buy popcorn waiting for ball to be thrown. The more time passes the more exciting the market becomes. Ultimate price elastic market. Tremendous opportunity in enterprise, desktop and notebook to drive demand at levels that have not been seen at this point, particularly in the consumer space. Independent marketing research firms could be off by a factor of 2-5 by 2011… conservatively. Add the hockey stick we expect in next 2-3 years will really change the dynamics of the market. Will require unprecedented scale for the industry.

Late to the market with MLC SSD products. Expect to start sampling by end of the year. Killed internal project based on 56nm and redirected to 43nm… took the hit up front and hopefully will be the right decision when market really takes off in 2009. Enterprise space may adopt flash at faster rate than had thought. Most people expect adoption in notebooks first. In fact, what we see is there's a huge amount of activity in enterprise space… not price driven, its performance driven. A number of niche players that could do well in specific markets. Could do quite well in 2009.

Msystems SSD was designed for industrial market. Used SLC. Shipping it now… doesn't use Sandisk flash because they didn't want to have to requal. Not optimized for notebook computer. Requires tremendous amount of development. That's the delay.

… they're still talking. If they say anything important I'll throw it up.

No comments:

Blog Archive