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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Activision (ATVID) trounces their lowball estimates

They guided to 650mm with the street at 523mm. EPS will be 21-23 cents non-gaap with street at 14 cents. The quarter was bolstered by the release of Kung Fu Panda early in the quarter and Guitar Hero: On Tour (for DS) and Guitar Hero: Aerosmith. These results do not include World of Warcraft as the merger had not been consummated at quarter's end.

Vivendi is tendering for 4 bil of stock at $27.50. I'm guessing they aren't buying a lot of stock there as it hasnt traded below 30 for the last several months. Expect them to change this to a buyback, which should pop the stock again.

Activision remains the best story in game software. Guitar Hero is creating tough comps for them -- it will be very difficult to replicate the ASP of the initial controller sales as the franchise matures. I like the stock but you can have mine at $40.

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