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Thursday, October 23, 2008

I don't like posting this chart at all

Converging lines at around 7400 in the DJ average. I wish it said something more encouraging... but it doesn't.


Bogglor said...

And what you left unsaid, but the chart illustrates: the last 10 years never happened. Ooof.

Roy Howard said...

The most troubling thing about that chart -- about this situation -- is that just takes us back to a growth trend trajectory. Bubbles overshoot both ways.

Anonymous said...

looks like the left shoulder and head of a multi year / giant head and shoulders pattern. better dust off that y2k bunker in the mountains that i had half complete

Greg said...

Those lines are as randomly drawn as my 2 year olds drawings.

Try picking some true trend lines instead of trying to scare everyone with that ridiculous title.

Sorry to be harsh, but this is NOT one of your better posts.

Roy Howard said...

Your two year old's drawings. Good one.

I'm not trying to scare people. In fact, I don't really like what that chart says. I think I'll probably get hurt if that's true because I'm having trouble finding shorts that don't already look overdone.

As to the lines being amateurish... they are. I study the graph somewhat and I try to draw lines where I think I see trends. They can certainly be incorrect assessments. They're just possibilities. I will say, though, that in my experience arguing with intersecting lines like that is a mistake.

I invite you to draw your own trendlines, Greg.

Roy Howard said...

Uh oh.

drfinn said...

I blame you. Your lines drawn by a 2 year old.

Everything would be fine if it wasn't for those darn lines.

On a side note, can anyone explain to me how its wise for OPEC to try to raise prices in a global meltdown? Doesn't it make ZERO sense to raise the price of energy when the world is having massive economic problems.

I guess I don't think like an OPECer.

Anonymous said...

Why are those three trendlines significant? What do they represent? I can almost understand 1 and 3, but the 2 line doesn't make any sense to me; is it tied to the volume surge that seems to happen about there?

Roy Howard said...

Truthfully, I don't know why that line is significant. It was there. The one that is important is the third line... the long-term uptrend. What's troubling to me about this chart is it looks like a lot of others I've been watching lately... and I can't think of one that held its long-term uptrend line.

I've been fishing around for the next level and I'm afraid -- legitimately afraid -- it's near 6000. But I figured I'd wait for them to test the 7400ish level before I started talking about
another level of misery.

In all seriousness, even as a bear, I can't feel good about what's going on. It's tragic for so many people.

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