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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Micron (MU) reports tonight

I would imagine its a disaster. Memory products of all shapes and sizes are significantly lower than a year ago and the prior quarter. All signs point to a decent downtick in the month of September for electronics products including PCs. Inventory seems very high. Production cutbacks at major memory manufacturers (the list is too long to mention) could alleviate pressure on pricing in the future -- but not now and not in time for Christmas. Micron is allegedly exploring the purchase of Qimonda's assets but it's unlikely that would happen without some other kind of capital event like selling the CMOS division or getting a new partner in NAND. Neither seems likely near-term.

Expect to see them eviscerate their capital expenditure budget for next year. Expect losses and then expect more losses. Micron's greatest hope is that they can survive long enough to see competitors die. It might happen but I would not take that bet in the present unforgiving environment. Stocks with high levels of debt and poor visibility are selling targets for struggling money managers.

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