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Friday, July 25, 2008

NAND memory is a mess here

There's still a lot of capex cuts flowing through the industry here. I've been saying notions of Q4 recovery for memory capex were going to fade as NAND took another big dip in pricing and demand... and it's happening now. Sandisk said they'd cut capex quite a bit and pushed out some expansion plans. Hynix said they'd shutter some US capacity and maybe look to sell the unit. Samsung's memory comments last night were pretty bleak. Samsung is the port in the storm for the industry -- they've been spending aggressively through the downturn -- expect that to change as reality sets in.

Lam is going to have to throw in the towel on a December recovery. After that, I don't know yet. Possibly all these memory capacity cuts will set the stage for a good second half of 2009. That's a ways out. For now I suggest letting the bad news flow.

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