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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Intel (INTC) revises 4Q:2008 forecast lower

Intel lowered its revenue forecast to 8.2 bil from the prior 8.7 - 9.3 bil and consensus of 8.8 bil. Despite the dramatically lower revenue, gross margins will remain in the previously stated range of 55 +/- 2% -- they must be overproducing like mad to keep margins up on that kind of shortfall. Expect significant inventory build at Intel when they report. As most of the rest of the known semi universe lowered a couple of times intra-quarter, Intel's guidance is somewhat expected. Despite that expectation, Intel trades at a relatively lofty valuation for a company that still hasn't eclipsed its 2005 annual sales results. This is not a growth stock and its quickly becoming a shrink stock and yet it continues to trade with a premium multiple. I don't think that can last in a more frugal economic environment.

I'm short some (you could probably tell).

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