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Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Some semis are bottoming out fundamentally

Barclays met with 3 dozen semis.  Intersil (ISIL) is tracking up 0-5% vs their guidance of flat.  Marvell (MRVL) business bottomed out in the third week of January and is tracking better for April.  Microchip (MCHP) is receiving rush orders.

Semi investors tend to chase datapoints like these so these stocks may become tradable vehicles – particularly on a day when the market is starting off down a couple of percent for no clear reason.

Longer-term, I expect short-term blips higher in business will not lead to sustained recovery.  This is inventory tweaking and not due to big upticks in demand.  Spending is likely to remain on hold for the determinable future as economic clarity is anything but clear.

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