There's still a lot of capex cuts flowing through the industry here. I've been saying notions of Q4 recovery for memory capex were going to fade as NAND took another big dip in pricing and demand... and it's happening now. Sandisk said they'd cut capex quite a bit and pushed out some expansion plans. Hynix said they'd shutter some US capacity and maybe look to sell the unit. Samsung's memory comments last night were pretty bleak. Samsung is the port in the storm for the industry -- they've been spending aggressively through the downturn -- expect that to change as reality sets in.
Lam is going to have to throw in the towel on a December recovery. After that, I don't know yet. Possibly all these memory capacity cuts will set the stage for a good second half of 2009. That's a ways out. For now I suggest letting the bad news flow.
Friday, July 25, 2008
NAND memory is a mess here
Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) 3Q:2008 results
Varian is a semicap with a lot of memory exposure. As the memory market has been under extreme pressure for most of the year I've been saying sell VSEA, LRCX, MTSN, FORM, KLAC... they're all much more memory dependent than the historical norms. It's been biting most of them in the ass. Varian is no exception.
The current quarter was fine. The outlook was dismal. They guided to revenues of 130-140mm with the street at 176mm and earnings of break even with the street looking for 24 cents. The stock charts to roughly 23.1 where I'll look to cover.
Western Digital (WDC) 4Q:2008 results
Western Digital (WDC) reported better than expected numbers for the quarter but guided gross margins to 19.3% for next quarter -- the street was assuming over 21% on slightly better revenue. The net of it is an EPS outlook a dime below the street.
Though channel inventory was worked down across the industry, OEM pricing came through worse as a result of the availability of drives while negotiating was in process.
I'd suggested shorting this stock in the mid and high 30s. I wouldn't really be a buyer until its under 25.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Earnings Estimate Cheat Sheet: July 23, 2008 - July 24, 2008
Estimated Reporting Date Symbol Revenue Estimate Current Q Operating Profit Estimate Current Q EPS Estimate Current Q EBITDA Estimate Current Q Revenue Estimate Next Q Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent Operating Profit Estimate Next Q EPS Estimate Next Q EBITDA Estimate Next Q Revenue Estimate Full Year Operating Profit Estimate Full Year EPS Estimate Full Year EBITDA Estimate Full Year Revenue Estimate Next Year Operating Profit Estimate Next Year EPS Estimate Next Year EBITDA Estimate Next Year 7/23/2008 AEIS 83.4 5.1 0.10 8.1 85.3 2.35% 8.4 0.14 11.7 343.8 32.1 0.54 43.7 381.8 49.4 0.86 62.7 7/23/2008 AMZN 3,955.4 157.8 0.26 286.0 4,231.3 6.98% 171.4 0.28 295.7 19,599.7 881.6 1.50 1,348.2 24,318.5 1,223.6 2.10 1,754.3 7/23/2008 ARW 4,038.0 161.0 0.77 181.5 4,141.1 2.55% 153.6 0.72 174.0 16,504.9 666.7 3.15 730.1 17,232.3 717.7 3.42 788.4 7/23/2008 ATMI 92.3 14.3 0.32 21.2 99.5 7.82% 16.2 0.34 24.5 388.3 63.8 1.36 90.6 433.3 75.3 1.56 96.2 7/23/2008 BIDU 112.5 34.9 0.97 47.2 135.3 20.20% 42.7 1.22 57.2 470.7 149.1 4.15 195.1 748.6 245.5 6.61 312.1 7/23/2008 CDNS 316.2 43.0 0.14 64.6 412.8 30.56% 137.1 0.40 158.7 1,511.6 390.4 1.16 482.5 1,582.6 410.8 1.32 562.2 7/23/2008 CTXS 387.0 81.5 0.36 88.4 403.2 4.19% 90.1 0.39 92.7 1,620.3 357.5 1.59 431.5 1,890.0 455.4 1.95 526.5 7/23/2008 DGII 46.5 0.9 0.04 3.3 49.4 6.22% 3.5 0.09 6.2 183.5 13.1 0.40 22.5 215.7 18.2 0.52 28.1 7/23/2008 EQIX 170.0 16.7 0.14 66.7 178.5 5.00% 19.3 0.18 70.8 696.2 73.7 0.74 279.1 860.2 138.5 1.99 362.9 7/23/2008 FFIV 161.4 23.7 0.22 46.6 169.1 4.78% 26.9 0.24 50.0 643.7 96.9 0.87 186.7 749.3 130.8 1.12 233.4 7/23/2008 GSIC 181.6 (19.9) (0.26) (1.0) 188.1 3.61% (17.1) (0.23) 2.4 1,000.8 (1.6) 0.01 73.9 1,176.6 16.0 0.20 97.1 7/23/2008 IKAN 30.1 (0.3) 0.01 -- 31.7 5.40% (0.5) 0.00 -- 124.9 (1.1) 0.03 -- 145.4 1.3 0.10 -- 7/23/2008 ISIL 217.0 60.2 0.38 61.5 220.6 1.68% 63.8 0.40 66.6 871.9 249.1 1.59 249.6 945.5 280.5 1.80 289.5 7/23/2008 JAKK 136.8 8.8 0.22 16.1 339.9 148.41% 72.0 1.50 77.3 906.1 119.9 2.91 146.6 939.1 130.4 3.09 154.3 7/23/2008 LSI 665.5 66.5 0.09 -- 693.4 4.19% 77.8 0.11 -- 2,752.8 303.2 0.43 370.1 2,910.4 352.5 0.48 413.5 7/23/2008 MTSN 39.7 (9.8) (0.15) (12.0) 40.0 0.65% (9.0) (0.17) (13.0) 173.7 (28.6) (0.45) (27.0) 227.0 3.3 0.16 9.5 7/23/2008 MLNX 27.8 7.0 0.22 -- 30.2 8.73% 9.1 0.28 -- 115.7 31.7 1.01 29.6 147.6 42.9 1.31 43.0 7/23/2008 NTGR 196.0 18.5 0.35 -- 213.9 9.10% 21.8 0.41 -- 834.4 82.7 1.59 86.0 960.6 100.5 1.87 106.0 7/23/2008 QCOM 2,708.8 1,039.5 0.55 1,077.8 2,712.8 0.15% 1,028.7 0.54 1,054.4 10,466.0 4,033.3 2.15 4,382.8 11,888.0 4,784.7 2.46 5,297.8 7/23/2008 QUIK 8.5 (2.2) (0.07) -- 9.0 5.88% (1.0) (0.04) -- 39.2 (3.5) (0.12) -- 42.0 0.6 0.01 -- 7/23/2008 SANM 1,823.5 52.6 0.04 81.2 1,867.9 2.44% 55.8 0.05 85.1 7,967.5 214.3 0.15 321.7 7,741.3 239.7 0.23 355.7 7/23/2008 SKX 360.3 22.4 0.34 29.0 447.2 24.12% 45.9 0.66 52.5 1,532.5 140.0 2.04 161.2 1,704.0 162.0 2.32 185.1 7/23/2008 STMP 21.0 1.7 0.11 1.9 21.2 1.02% 2.8 0.17 3.1 87.0 9.3 0.63 10.6 96.2 10.5 0.69 12.7 7/23/2008 SY 262.5 53.1 0.43 76.7 269.3 2.59% 58.9 0.48 83.2 1,097.2 243.9 1.97 341.7 1,165.4 273.9 2.18 366.4 7/23/2008 TER 321.0 30.7 0.17 49.0 332.6 3.61% 42.4 0.21 59.0 1,298.9 143.3 0.74 221.3 1,412.6 198.5 0.99 269.0 7/23/2008 TQNT 127.7 8.3 0.07 17.3 146.7 14.81% 15.9 0.11 24.8 547.3 52.3 0.38 87.3 624.7 81.6 0.51 117.2 7/23/2008 UIS 1,329.9 37.0 0.03 -- 1,378.5 3.66% 58.0 0.05 -- 5,511.7 223.6 0.16 583.1 5,450.5 279.8 0.33 638.5 7/23/2008 TZOO 21.0 1.1 (0.02) 1.4 21.3 1.35% 1.3 (0.01) 1.8 83.9 4.5 (0.10) 6.5 90.1 11.7 0.31 12.3 7/23/2008 WFR 557.9 263.3 1.00 290.1 616.3 10.47% 295.3 1.14 317.9 2,361.0 1,107.1 4.30 1,208.7 2,953.1 1,404.8 5.24 1,524.9 7/23/2008 XLNX 483.8 126.8 0.37 151.5 496.5 2.62% 132.7 0.39 156.2 1,977.3 527.3 1.53 607.4 2,127.6 588.3 1.74 690.3 7/24/2008 ARTG 39.3 1.2 0.01 3.4 40.8 3.94% 2.1 0.02 4.1 161.6 9.5 0.09 -- 193.0 21.5 0.17 29.2 7/24/2008 AUO 4,066.0 534.6 0.57 -- 4,024.0 -1.03% 505.4 0.53 -- 16,830.8 2,571.8 2.83 5,523.9 17,722.0 2,358.3 2.09 5,658.3 7/24/2008 AVID 211.0 (6.5) (0.10) (0.2) 219.8 4.17% 2.8 0.08 12.7 881.7 2.9 0.12 32.8 933.7 28.3 0.70 59.2 7/24/2008 BMC 432.5 106.0 0.43 109.1 469.5 8.54% 131.6 0.51 130.3 1,933.4 553.9 2.15 629.8 2,070.6 606.3 2.45 705.0 7/24/2008 BKHM 61.5 (4.2) (0.04) (0.8) 65.2 5.90% (2.0) (0.02) 0.5 234.4 (21.0) (0.18) (2.0) 269.9 0.5 0.00 19.0 7/24/2008 CCMP 97.6 11.3 0.39 16.0 99.5 1.93% 14.1 0.44 19.0 385.0 50.5 1.68 74.5 427.2 65.5 2.10 89.0 7/24/2008 CHRT 455.5 8.0 0.03 -- 474.4 4.16% 12.0 0.06 -- 1,822.2 10.3 0.17 599.4 1,987.9 121.3 0.39 755.7 7/24/2008 COHU 50.0 (2.1) (0.01) -- 56.5 13.00% 1.6 0.06 -- 220.4 2.7 0.22 -- 261.0 27.7 0.81 -- 7/24/2008 CYMI 123.4 15.7 0.39 22.0 118.5 -4.00% 12.8 0.34 18.0 491.2 64.5 1.56 91.7 536.3 85.6 2.04 105.4 7/25/2008 ENWV -- -- -- -- -- #VALUE! -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7/24/2008 EPIC 132.2 22.0 0.21 22.3 139.9 5.85% 25.8 0.26 27.2 536.2 89.6 0.90 93.3 582.3 109.4 1.10 112.1 7/24/2008 ESIO 61.7 0.1 0.03 1.6 60.0 -2.76% 0.2 0.04 0.7 256.1 5.8 0.27 13.6 281.0 18.9 0.60 26.1 7/24/2008 FALC 23.5 5.1 0.07 -- 25.0 6.25% 5.7 0.08 -- 103.1 25.2 0.34 -- 131.2 34.2 0.47 -- 7/24/2008 FLEX 8,297.2 285.0 0.28 402.3 8,916.0 7.46% 317.9 0.31 435.2 35,590.9 1,282.1 1.25 1,766.6 39,388.4 1,512.7 1.47 2,010.3 7/24/2008 IM 8,582.4 97.4 0.35 114.6 8,785.0 2.36% 108.1 0.40 121.8 35,891.0 470.0 1.72 545.4 37,884.6 534.5 1.96 598.9 7/24/2008 ISSI 59.8 0.5 0.08 -- 62.7 4.73% 1.2 0.08 -- 244.0 3.1 0.30 -- 263.9 6.2 0.35 -- 7/24/2008 IWOV 62.5 10.7 0.17 -- 63.2 1.26% 11.0 0.17 -- 257.1 44.8 0.71 -- 286.1 53.8 0.82 -- 7/24/2008 JNPR 852.2 198.1 0.27 249.2 888.4 4.25% 211.2 0.29 261.5 3,500.1 835.4 1.13 1,009.0 4,122.4 1,053.2 1.39 1,219.8 7/24/2008 KMT 732.4 92.5 0.84 114.7 655.4 -10.52% 67.2 0.61 90.7 2,684.7 304.7 2.75 394.9 2,830.6 340.4 3.10 430.4 7/24/2008 LDIS 7.3 (8.4) (0.26) (8.1) 11.6 58.93% (7.3) (0.22) (7.0) 42.0 (29.7) (0.92) (28.5) 82.2 (6.9) (0.20) (5.7) 7/24/2008 LSCC 58.1 (0.5) 0.02 -- 60.3 3.66% (0.4) 0.03 -- 236.3 (0.1) 0.08 13.9 262.9 13.7 0.18 29.7 7/24/2008 LVLT 1,075.0 (31.3) (0.10) 220.2 1,080.0 0.46% (6.0) (0.09) 241.0 4,349.0 (112.8) (0.39) 913.1 4,599.0 83.9 (0.26) 1,109.2 7/24/2008 MCHP 270.3 89.0 0.40 111.4 278.3 2.97% 93.7 0.41 115.2 1,116.1 373.5 1.66 462.8 1,229.2 420.7 1.90 524.9 7/24/2008 MCRL 68.9 11.3 0.11 -- 70.7 2.51% 13.0 0.12 -- 278.4 48.7 0.48 66.2 303.8 61.8 0.59 76.2 7/24/2008 MSCC 128.8 35.2 0.34 42.0 133.2 3.39% 37.3 0.35 44.7 512.1 137.8 1.32 165.9 579.1 170.3 1.61 200.4 7/24/2008 NEM 1,461.4 521.0 0.47 476.7 1,566.3 7.17% 614.0 0.58 572.0 6,725.6 2,617.3 2.39 3,040.8 7,412.0 3,276.6 2.93 3,503.1 7/24/2008 NETL 36.2 8.1 0.37 -- 37.6 3.73% 8.3 0.37 -- 147.2 33.0 1.51 -- 175.7 42.5 1.77 -- 7/24/2008 NTCT 63.7 7.4 0.11 -- 64.9 1.88% 8.3 0.13 -- 265.9 33.8 0.54 -- 293.9 45.0 0.73 -- 7/24/2008 PLXS 441.2 20.1 0.39 27.9 461.6 4.63% 22.3 0.43 30.5 1,812.4 101.6 1.88 131.2 2,005.6 104.3 2.01 136.4 7/24/2008 POWI 54.7 12.1 0.35 14.1 61.4 12.09% 14.8 0.42 16.9 230.1 53.6 1.53 61.4 267.1 67.7 1.86 75.2 7/24/2008 PTIX 10.8 (0.4) 0.01 -- 11.6 7.12% (0.0) 0.03 -- 45.4 0.4 0.15 -- 51.1 2.6 0.30 -- 7/24/2008 QI 660.1 (479.5) (1.47) (367.0) 762.5 15.51% (398.5) (1.18) (250.4) 2,843.8 (2,423.1) (7.72) (1,494.7) 3,549.3 (741.7) (2.62) 437.2 7/24/2008 RMBS 34.3 (24.0) (0.12) -- 31.4 -8.46% (25.0) (0.12) -- 154.6 (99.9) (0.48) -- 154.8 (87.3) (0.38) -- 7/24/2008 RMTR 15.3 2.1 0.05 -- 16.7 9.37% 1.5 0.06 -- 63.7 7.1 0.23 -- 80.8 11.7 0.34 -- 7/24/2008 RSH 908.5 62.2 0.26 89.0 933.8 2.78% 71.1 0.31 94.5 4,117.4 356.3 1.58 448.9 4,052.3 355.5 1.56 432.0 7/24/2008 RVBD 77.0 11.0 0.11 13.1 81.9 6.42% 12.6 0.13 14.6 321.8 48.8 0.49 58.9 404.2 79.0 0.75 93.3 7/24/2008 SIMG 67.6 3.0 0.04 5.2 75.2 11.37% 6.1 0.07 10.2 283.3 17.4 0.22 29.8 297.7 21.1 0.27 36.5 7/24/2008 SIRF 62.1 (10.1) (0.13) -- 69.9 12.66% (0.9) (0.00) -- 270.1 (16.7) (0.19) -- 294.1 4.6 0.24 -- 7/24/2008 SYNT 102.5 17.6 0.38 21.6 107.4 4.81% 20.3 0.43 23.6 420.9 78.4 1.76 91.9 509.8 96.8 1.99 111.9 7/24/2008 TASR 27.2 0.9 0.01 3.8 31.0 14.16% 4.7 0.05 6.4 115.2 15.8 0.14 18.0 141.4 35.2 0.32 34.9 7/24/2008 TRMB 377.5 82.5 0.45 92.1 338.1 -10.45% 65.5 0.36 72.2 1,419.0 282.2 1.54 318.1 1,605.5 333.8 1.82 359.1 7/24/2008 TXN 3,440.1 857.5 0.45 1,101.0 3,429.2 -0.32% 849.2 0.45 1,120.8 13,507.9 3,345.6 1.83 4,319.7 14,093.7 3,624.7 1.97 4,681.6 7/24/2008 UTEK 32.0 1.6 0.10 3.5 32.2 0.55% 1.6 0.10 3.5 130.2 6.7 0.44 14.6 148.7 13.1 0.69 20.8 7/24/2008 VIGN 46.5 1.0 0.10 5.0 46.4 -0.14% 1.0 0.09 4.0 189.3 7.0 0.49 12.0 206.3 15.4 0.81 -- 7/24/2008 VLCM 69.5 5.9 0.17 7.2 112.4 61.75% 25.7 0.69 27.4 346.8 58.5 1.58 64.9 397.8 68.9 1.86 73.7 7/24/2008 VLTR 29.9 6.1 0.25 6.8 31.0 3.44% 6.3 0.25 6.9 112.6 21.5 0.88 23.9 132.0 27.7 0.96 28.5 7/24/2008 VSEA 181.2 27.7 0.25 31.6 183.3 1.16% 29.7 0.27 30.6 873.8 178.9 1.54 194.3 916.2 204.8 2.07 232.9 7/24/2008 WDC 1,887.7 199.5 0.82 305.4 2,035.8 7.85% 241.0 0.99 354.8 7,966.1 1,016.4 4.19 1,414.7 8,417.8 1,012.1 4.12 1,467.4 7/24/2008 ZBRA 253.9 42.5 0.45 51.3 255.8 0.72% 43.9 0.47 52.2 1,023.9 177.0 1.87 208.9 1,104.5 199.9 2.15 232.4 7/25/2008 ENWV -- -- -- -- -- #VALUE! -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7/25/2008 NFLX 337.6 32.1 0.40 41.8 347.2 2.84% 29.6 0.31 38.3 1,374.0 108.2 1.23 139.6 1,624.8 151.6 1.54 216.5 7/25/2008 RNOW 34.3 (2.6) (0.05) (0.8) 35.5 3.59% (1.0) (0.00) 1.0 139.8 (6.7) (0.10) 1.9 167.7 5.2 0.23 14.2