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iSuppli sees weaker NAND market

iSuppli drops their NAND forecast from a silly prior forecast of 27% growth to a more reasonable (but probably still too high) single digit forecast. Most of the reduction is being blamed on Apple's weaker buy plans to suppliers.

I think the horse has been gone from the barn for a while here, guys. To be cutting the NAND forecast based on month old weakness at Apple is pretty lame. Not that it isn't correct... it's just late as hell.

Wii is pronounced whee

The other day I queued up a Lion King video from youtube for my daughter on my wife's iPhone. I walked out of the room and came back and she was playing a different video. The first time she picked up the phone, she was gleefully scrolling through the pictures stored on it. The iPhone is that intuitive and easy. It's accessible to her because its simple and user friendly.

The Wii has that same friendliness. You don't need to know how to do 6 button/stick combinations to execute a punch. You punch. You swing your arm to hit a ball. It's that easy.

This simplicity of function opens video games to generations that have been previously locked out by fears of carpal tunnel and a lack of desire to learn the nuances of an Xbox controller with its intimidating set of a dozen buttons.

The Wii has weak graphics and almost seems like a step backward, but its really a quantum leap forward in terms of accessibility and downright fun. Kids love it. So do their parents. Video games have been the domain of the teenage and twenty-something male forever. I often hear about women that love to play the Wii, too. Nintendo has broken the video game out of the niche and into the mainstream.

When a company reinvents a category like Nintendo has with the Wii, stock outperformance is almost a given. I own some stock for my daughter and I have no intentions of selling it. It's a winner.

Apple shouldn't be strong off RIMM

There's really no correlation between RIMM's results and Apple's business.

The iPhone needs a product refresh to juice growth again. Until that happens, the stock will be mired in a netherworld of iPod concerns and questions about what's taking 3G so long.

Analog Devices (ADI) Expects Normal Seasonal Patterns

Despite guiding slightly lower for next quarter relative to consensus, ADI's commentary indicates the end market weakness they see every year following Christmas continued this year. They also expect business next quarter to pick up as it generally has in years past. Orders are up slightly on a sequential basis and they're indicating their consumer business (which go into a variety of consumer electronics) and their digital TV businesses will increase next quarter. ADI does quite a bit of distribution business so I'm not sure how great their visibility is.

I have a friend who says ADI leads the SOX on a longer-term basis so I try to pay attention to how the stock behaves. Guidance down, stock up. A good sign perhaps.

Research In Motion (RIMM) In Motion

The company guides up subscriber additions but leaves revenues and EPS expectations unchanged -- so expect them to beat revenue and EPS expectations when they get around to reporting in March.

At some point in the next quarter or two, RIMM will release Blackberry OS 4.5 for the 8xxx series and I think it will be a meaningful upgrade as it will allow streaming media and the ability to shoot movies on their camera-equipped phones. Their consumer business is just beginning. Last quarter it was 34% of the overall subscriber base. Expect that percentage of business to grow rapidly.

I worry there could be some backup in the financial vertical over the coming months but if that's happening so far it's mighty well hidden.

Without being alarmist, I did want to point out an odd disclosure from the press release:

The number of net subscriber accounts and net subscriber account additions is
a non-financial metric and should not be relied upon as an indicator of RIM's
financial performance. The number of net subscriber accounts and net
subscriber account additions does not have any standardized meaning prescribed
by U.S. GAAP and may not be comparable to similar metrics presented by other
companies.


That's the first time they've used that particular disclaimer.

According to last quarter's press release, subscribers ended Q3 at "approximately 12 million" and this press release says Q4 will be "approximately 14 million". They say they added "15-20% higher" than their guidance of 1.82 million, which implies 2.1-2.2 mil subscribers. So 100-200k subscribers are either disconnecting or lost in rounding. It's totally impossible to draw a conclusion from this. Even if they did lose 200k subscribers, which seems like the worst case scenario, its 1.5% of the base and doesn't seem wildly high for a subscriber business.

Blackberries are damn sticky. I've never been able to get something else... and I've tried every time my contract has come up. No one does email on the cell phone as well. Not even close.

The upside in the current quarter implies further upside to consensus numbers, despite the new disclaimer. It's extremely likely we'll see estimates for '10 start to poke through $5.00. Suddenly RIMM looks incredibly cheap at 22* next year's estimates as of last sale at $110. Earnings estimates for 2009 will be somewhere between $4.00 and $4.25 I would guess -- a more somber 25-27*. They're practically growing at 100% on a y/y basis and this is no start-up. They have mass market appeal and scale. Any concerns about the financial vertical or the consumer spending cycle are trumped. At $200, yes, those are valid concerns. At $110 those concerns wind up being a missed opportunity and a heap of self-flagellation as you watch it go up without you.

Trying to be constructive (not my strength!)

Tech valuations have come in pretty dramatically over the last several months with the semiconductor index retreating from a 52 week high of 550 in mid July to a low of 334 in the last week or so. The quarterly earnings scorecard has been somewhat icy with notable signs of slippage in terms of business momentum. The post-holiday season has been weak at the retail level. The financial vertical is under an enormous amount of pressure – their bottom lines have dropped and the body count continues.

Money has been pouring into commodities due to inflationary concerns over the last several months as (not because) tech has unwound. Who can blame people for being afraid of inflation? The Fed just dropped rates at an unprecedented pace and your parting gift from the Bush Administration is a tax rebate. Our fiscal spending shows no signs of abatement despite the changing tides. In fact, they seem to be trying to figure out how to throw yet more money at the housing valuation problem.

The last time the Fed lowered rates this quickly it was due to Y2K concerns. This caused a bubble in tech spending as enterprises and their consulting masses rushed to make sure their systems were compliant via upgrades to IT hardware and software. These hardware and software companies, flush with cash, in turn used their coffers to fund ill-fated dot coms, in effect becoming venture capitalists to start-ups with a url and a dream.

It took a few months for the suppliers to hit the same wall as their dot companions. The financing problems started to creep up at Cisco – they started to increase their provisioning for bad loans. The receivables were watched closely by analysts. It was 6 months before the real problems emerged but it took a couple of years to burn off the excess capacity in the system and for growth to resume.

We could get the same long hangover in the industrial economy that we had in the dot com aftermath.

Does it really make sense that commodities would explode in value heading into a recession? During the S&L crisis in the late 80s, the Fed also eased considerably in an effort to stabilize the system as the many layers of the problem were revealed. The CRB spiked for a few months afterward after the S&L bailout began in February. It peaked out in mid 1988 and began a 4 year decline that bottomed out 35% below that peak.

Sadly, I don't have historical data for the SOX to do any kind of valid historical study of how the semiconductors performed in 1988 as the index only goes back to 1994ish. There is a historical inverse correlation between semiconductors and commodities. When the dotconomy took off, cyclicals became a dirty word in day trader lingo – they were cast away and forgotten. This looks like the tail end of the inverse condition to me. People are throwing away tech and chasing the last gasp of commodities.

Some things could go right for tech. Unlimited voice plans in wireless is the beginning of a lower pricing structure which should drive units. Microsoft will ship Vista Service Pack 1 in the near future and maybe the decrepit desktop installed base will get a boost if it's up to corporate snuff. Recessions tend to drive people to the couch instead of the mall. Could we see increased spending vigor in digital TV and internet video? Could someone besides Apple figure out how to monetize it?

Inventories aren't outrageously high. Guidance was understandably cautious from most of the larger OEMs. January was pretty punk. We could start to see some improvement in motherboard builds off the January base as the quarter moves on.

Reasons to sell tech stocks are abundantly clear. Valuations tell me I need to be looking for reasons to buy.

Earnings Estimate Cheat Sheet – February 20-22, 2008

Estimated Reporting Date	Symbol	Revenue Estimate Current Q	Operating Profit Estimate Current Q	EPS Estimate Current Q	EBITDA Estimate Current Q	Revenue Estimate Next Q	Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent	Operating Profit Estimate Next Q	EPS Estimate Next Q	EBITDA Estimate Next Q	Revenue Estimate Full Year	Operating Profit Estimate Full Year	EPS Estimate Full Year	EBITDA Estimate Full Year	Revenue Estimate Next Year	Operating Profit Estimate Next Year	EPS Estimate Next Year	EBITDA Estimate Next Year
2/20/2008	ADI	623.5	149.3	0.39	186.0	643.7	3.23%	159.4	0.42	192.7	2,599.9	642.6	1.71	781.1	2,799.1	716.5	1.96	845.2
2/20/2008	NANO	39.8	--	0.06	5.8	40.8	2.51%	--	0.14	7.0	152.9	--	(0.09)	14.6	177.9	--	0.54	35.6
2/20/2008	NTES	75.9	39.8	0.30	46.8	76.4	0.71%	39.8	0.30	45.5	292.1	155.9	1.19	173.0	328.5	167.4	1.24	188.2
2/20/2008	NVTL	120.7	14.5	0.31	18.1	118.2	-2.10%	13.9	0.29	--	432.6	53.6	1.18	62.4	501.0	59.0	1.29	73.4
2/20/2008	SINA	69.1	17.3	0.33	21.9	65.9	-4.72%	13.0	0.26	18.7	244.6	53.8	1.08	69.7	333.9	83.7	1.49	102.0
2/20/2008	SNPS	312.9	71.7	0.38	84.5	320.9	2.55%	74.4	0.38	86.9	1,305.6	304.5	1.59	352.9	1,395.4	358.3	1.88	416.0
2/20/2008	TQNT	128.0	10.9	0.09	--	121.5	-5.08%	9.1	0.08	--	475.3	33.3	0.26	--	532.7	52.1	0.42	--
2/20/2008	VRGY	200.0	31.9	0.52	--	179.9	-10.06%	23.6	0.41	--	769.3	114.7	1.92	119.4	807.1	137.7	2.24	181.3
2/21/2008	BCSI	80.1	12.9	0.33	15.0	85.1	6.21%	13.8	0.35	16.0	301.0	45.6	1.20	53.0	387.0	71.0	1.37	81.0
2/21/2008	INTU	845.6	205.9	0.36	215.5	1,283.9	51.84%	729.1	1.37	756.1	3,029.2	867.4	1.61	938.3	3,302.9	972.5	1.83	1,041.1
2/21/2008	MVSN	83.3	31.7	0.49	33.0	75.8	-8.97%	21.1	0.35	--	282.3	84.3	1.44	94.7	331.5	107.2	1.65	119.0
2/21/2008	NCTY	51.5	8.8	0.25	16.4	55.4	7.73%	10.2	0.30	20.3	166.6	29.6	1.01	57.2	249.0	46.6	1.44	80.7
2/21/2008	OPTV	29.8	(3.7)	(0.01)	(1.2)	--	#VALUE!	--	0.00	--	102.9	(19.3)	(0.10)	(6.2)	108.5	(11.2)	(0.06)	3.7
2/21/2008	TSCM	19.9	4.6	0.16	5.3	20.3	1.75%	3.7	0.14	5.1	65.5	13.3	0.52	15.5	86.6	19.4	0.70	22.9
2/21/2008	WBMD	97.3	17.8	0.27	22.7	85.7	-11.96%	3.1	0.08	14.9	336.1	31.0	0.57	57.1	407.4	56.3	0.69	84.6

Give it to the Fed. They'll eat anything.

This article is troubling.

According to the Financial Times, banks have quietly borrowed 50 billion dollars from the Federal Reserve window, securing the loans with the collateral of their choosing. Obviously we're talking about CDOs and other subprime debt. Effectively the Fed is easing the strain on the banking system by providing cash up front for any old scrap of paper with a value scribbled on it. By loaning money to banks against bad loans, the Fed is pretty much increasing leverage in the system at a time when the exact opposite should be happening.

In my opinion, this amounts to a bailout without congressional approval and another sign of leakage within the system. The problems won't go away like this. They'll just linger. If you're a bank, you can get quick and ready financing at attractive rates for garbage you can't sell. If the government decided they were going to bail out the subprime market, it would be open to public debate and ultimately that decision would fall on the representatives of the collective populus -- congress. By providing liquidity to banks with illiquid securities as collateral, the Fed has gone over all of our heads. It's not good.

In related news, my ATM fees at banks have doubled in recent weeks. Chase is charging $3 for withdrawals if you don't have an account there -- it was $2 a couple of months ago. More leaks.

Mortgage rates are at record lows.

It sounds more like a credit bonanza than a credit crisis. Something about it just doesn't sit right with me. Maybe I'll go into a ton of debt since there are no consequences.

Trade Rag Troll – February 15, 2008

(Added quips, brief comments and tidiness Feb 17, 2008)

Four big U.S. newspaper companies set online ad network

Yeah. Good idea. About 10 years ago.

SEMI: Fab spending to dip 15% in 2008

At least. I'd put that closer to 25% before the year is out. There's an awful lot of capacity now. Just wait till utilization starts dropping off at the foundries.

ASE, TSMC, UMC see slow monthly results

Utilization started dropping off at the foundries. That's supposed to happen in January -- not surprising.

DRAM module makers to see negative capex growth in 2008

Memory spending cuts lead to memory module makers cutting spending too. Go figure.

Hynix to Resume Chip Supply to Spot Market

Oh, good. We wouldn't want anyone in the DRAM industry to actually make money selling into spot. More supply, please.

Wii expected to displace Xbox 360 with largest installed base in 2008, says iSuppli

I want a Wii so badly but I can't be trusted with one. I'd never go outside again. Nintendo has reinvented the gaming category with this product.

Apple wants to create a game console

This seems all backwards. You lose money on the hardware and make it back on the software licensing. That's the opposite of the Apple model – they make money on hardware and license their software to no one. However, in content they act as a license manager for all of the major record labels and most of the major movie studios. Maybe they've got great infrastructure to deliver games. It's something to think about.

PSP Phone reference spotted in Sony Magazine

Who the hell reads Sony Magazine? The dorks at Engadget, that's who.

Is there an abrupt change happening to the semiconductor industry cycle?

This is an interesting piece that talks about how there are various cycles within the overall semi cycle. I kind of agree with basic portions of this though I tend to think about tech as having 3 primary drivers – PCs, cell phones and networking equipment. Those tend to drive the rhythm of the group overall. I would guess digital TV winds up on this list at some point.

Taiwan panel makers see mixed sales results in January

To be expected in the post-holiday fade.

Analog IC designers GMT and Ene up 1Q forecasts on strong notebook demand

I'm surprised notebooks have hung in so well for so long. There's secular change there – desktops have been flat-lined for the last few years and all of the growth in the industry has been in notebooks. They tend to have shorter lifecycles than desktops as they're susceptible to being mishandled. I have gone through 4 notebooks since 2002. It's kind of a joke.

Sun preps Infiniband for broad net role

Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) sounds like they're going to have a good product cycle here. It looks cheap.

Cell phone-cancer link claimed by Israeli scientist

I don't imagine this story will be around long as the ientistsay illway isappearday soon.

MacBook Air SSD vs HDD Battery Life Revisted

This says contrary to initial reports, the SSD drive (solid state drive [aka NAND flash drive]) in the Macbook Air does consume less power than a platter-based hard disk drive. That's good because it's also slower than a platter-based drive. So far, anyway.

Ingram CEO On Market Weakness, Dell Managed Services

Nothing new here but some elaboration on the weakness they're seeing this quarter.

EMC's Storage Cloud Emerges

EMC has started laying plans to provide hosting storage services to customers.

VC funds, deals move to solar

At record valuations, just in time for the silicon oversupply coming late this year? Yep, sounds like VC.

Secretive startup's new chip might challenge Intel

No. Intel is a 120 billion dollar market capitalization company with 40 billion in annual sales. These guys don't even have working silicon yet. Or design wins.