Estimated Reporting Date Symbol Revenue Estimate Current Q Operating Profit Estimate Current Q EPS Estimate Current Q EBITDA Estimate Current Q Revenue Estimate Next Q Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent Operating Profit Estimate Next Q EPS Estimate Next Q EBITDA Estimate Next Q Revenue Estimate Full Year Operating Profit Estimate Full Year EPS Estimate Full Year EBITDA Estimate Full Year Revenue Estimate Next Year Operating Profit Estimate Next Year EPS Estimate Next Year EBITDA Estimate Next Year 1/30/2008 AMZN 5,372.4 286.9 0.48 396.2 3,924.9 -26.94% 199.1 0.35 298.3 14,518.9 671.6 1.12 1,079.7 18,245.8 958.4 1.63 1,468.6 1/30/2008 CDNS 470.3 172.2 0.46 199.5 393.2 -16.40% 107.6 0.30 133.8 1,628.1 490.7 1.35 593.1 1,744.7 558.3 1.53 661.8 1/30/2008 CRUS 49.0 3.5 0.08 6.9 46.9 -4.28% 2.9 0.06 7.1 184.0 12.6 0.27 23.5 216.4 23.1 0.42 38.3 1/30/2008 ESLR 20.0 (6.2) (0.04) (3.7) 20.0 0.45% (6.2) (0.03) (2.6) 67.7 (26.7) (0.25) (17.6) 103.7 (19.9) (0.07) (5.2) 1/30/2008 ININ 29.8 2.2 0.12 4.2 29.9 0.51% 2.1 0.10 3.4 109.7 7.8 0.46 -- 132.9 13.0 0.62 20.8 1/30/2008 MTSN 49.5 (2.0) 0.00 0.0 57.0 15.19% 1.1 0.05 -- 264.4 21.8 0.42 19.0 280.2 26.6 0.58 35.0 1/30/2008 NEWP 114.5 8.7 0.20 -- 111.5 -2.64% 6.5 0.17 -- 442.0 31.0 0.68 52.8 468.7 38.6 0.81 62.0 1/30/2008 NVLS 361.5 53.1 0.36 74.0 356.0 -1.52% 50.1 0.34 75.7 1,568.1 258.8 1.64 328.7 1,481.7 229.0 1.55 297.3 1/30/2008 OIIM 46.7 7.8 0.21 9.2 41.2 -11.69% 4.8 0.13 5.7 165.2 23.2 0.65 27.2 192.1 32.5 0.86 35.6 1/30/2008 OSTK 307.8 4.3 0.13 12.6 172.5 -43.96% (6.2) (0.26) -- 776.7 (31.8) (1.55) -- 827.2 (7.0) (0.21) 17.8 1/30/2008 SBUX 2,771.8 331.8 0.27 466.1 2,652.9 -4.29% 271.0 0.22 391.7 11,001.6 1,211.3 1.01 1,752.0 12,659.6 1,423.7 1.21 2,036.9 1/31/2008 ACLS 86.3 (11.2) (0.09) (7.1) 91.6 6.20% (4.5) (0.03) (0.3) 401.3 (15.3) (0.04) 0.9 398.1 (4.8) 0.06 10.0 1/31/2008 ACTU 38.4 9.4 0.10 10.0 35.1 -8.43% 7.0 0.08 7.6 139.3 28.3 0.32 30.5 152.6 34.4 0.38 36.8 1/31/2008 ALTR 309.9 56.5 0.17 67.1 319.1 2.95% 68.2 0.21 83.1 1,250.3 267.0 0.80 301.4 1,333.6 314.4 0.96 375.7 1/31/2008 ASYT 105.5 0.9 0.03 -- 109.9 4.16% 2.6 0.03 -- 471.7 23.8 0.30 -- 512.2 47.5 0.53 -- 1/31/2008 AVID 247.8 24.1 0.51 28.0 233.8 -5.66% 15.2 0.32 20.0 918.8 53.4 1.33 72.7 975.1 77.5 1.52 82.5 1/31/2008 AVNX 52.1 1.2 0.01 1.2 51.8 -0.62% 1.4 0.01 1.3 214.0 7.0 0.04 7.3 244.4 19.6 0.09 19.3 1/31/2008 CA 1,044.5 224.8 0.25 -- 1,052.0 0.72% 209.8 0.24 -- 4,189.2 978.5 1.09 1,144.7 4,329.9 1,049.9 1.19 1,348.9 1/31/2008 CLS 2,094.0 50.1 0.13 82.0 1,877.7 -10.33% 35.4 0.08 65.5 7,959.0 120.7 0.24 236.9 8,258.6 192.5 0.50 309.9 1/31/2008 COHU 60.0 0.4 0.08 -- 63.0 5.00% 1.7 0.10 -- 244.3 3.2 0.34 -- 270.0 15.7 0.65 -- 1/31/2008 DRIV 95.8 27.6 0.53 31.6 102.7 7.22% 31.2 0.58 33.8 348.2 94.9 1.87 109.1 405.9 115.0 2.19 132.7 1/31/2008 ERTS 1,736.4 373.5 0.90 447.6 837.9 -51.74% 35.3 0.16 70.8 3,893.6 374.4 1.11 547.3 4,555.2 762.5 1.93 924.0 1/31/2008 EXAR 27.3 (9.0) (0.05) -- 32.8 20.04% (4.9) 0.03 -- 96.4 (5.6) 0.14 -- 144.3 (5.6) 0.35 -- 1/31/2008 GOOG 3,450.2 1,798.0 4.44 2,069.9 3,766.9 9.18% 2,013.3 4.84 2,262.4 11,718.4 6,011.2 15.58 7,003.9 16,590.8 8,608.1 20.78 9,937.2 1/31/2008 ISSI 64.5 0.5 0.04 2.4 65.5 1.48% 0.8 0.05 3.4 269.4 3.8 0.20 13.4 -- -- -- -- 1/31/2008 IWOV 59.7 9.4 0.17 -- 58.8 -1.38% 8.8 0.16 -- 222.4 32.5 0.59 -- 248.9 41.8 0.70 -- 1/31/2008 JDSU 386.4 16.4 0.12 30.0 390.2 0.98% 18.2 0.12 31.0 1,541.9 68.2 0.46 115.1 1,712.2 139.2 0.71 181.5 1/31/2008 LAVA 54.1 8.6 0.14 20.0 55.7 2.96% 9.5 0.15 21.0 213.4 32.3 0.54 40.5 242.3 48.9 0.78 88.0 1/31/2008 MCRL 64.0 12.6 0.11 -- 64.5 0.77% 12.1 0.11 -- 257.7 48.4 0.44 66.8 270.3 52.1 0.48 71.6 1/31/2008 MNST 352.7 74.3 0.38 89.5 370.5 5.06% 78.1 0.41 93.2 1,352.9 262.7 1.40 326.3 1,521.8 334.9 1.76 396.5 1/31/2008 ONNN 407.1 75.9 0.21 99.5 399.3 -1.93% 72.2 0.20 97.5 1,565.2 283.6 0.80 371.8 1,662.2 324.3 0.91 411.3 1/31/2008 PKTR 38.0 (0.7) 0.00 -- 38.3 0.64% (0.8) 0.01 -- 141.8 (9.1) (0.15) (6.0) 163.1 4.2 0.16 15.0 1/31/2008 RFMD 268.6 11.0 0.07 -- 262.9 -2.14% 10.9 0.05 -- 999.6 40.4 0.26 110.0 1,182.0 96.6 0.34 -- 1/31/2008 SIMO 50.9 15.2 0.47 17.2 45.4 -10.80% 12.7 0.37 12.4 176.9 50.4 1.63 58.7 224.0 67.9 1.97 74.4 1/31/2008 SMTL 50.0 0.0 0.01 1.7 57.5 15.00% 3.4 0.06 4.0 238.5 16.1 0.34 20.1 287.5 34.8 0.68 62.3 1/31/2008 SWIR 125.7 13.2 0.35 16.1 120.7 -3.98% 11.0 0.29 -- 429.5 37.9 1.14 51.9 524.9 49.5 1.28 61.4 1/31/2008 TRID 70.7 16.0 0.23 16.8 61.9 -12.45% 11.0 0.16 7.4 287.4 66.4 0.94 56.0 308.2 54.2 0.78 21.9 1/31/2008 TSM 2,864.1 1,095.6 0.20 -- 2,670.7 -6.75% 941.6 0.17 -- 9,846.2 3,390.4 0.63 5,864.0 11,491.7 4,201.0 0.74 6,761.7 1/31/2008 TSO 5,881.0 58.5 0.02 141.7 4,878.0 -17.05% 105.1 0.54 207.6 19,338.8 1,115.8 4.39 1,459.9 20,370.4 1,338.9 5.24 1,607.8 1/31/2008 TSRA 52.7 18.7 0.26 -- 52.4 -0.51% 17.0 0.24 -- 195.3 67.9 0.94 -- 220.3 88.1 1.13 -- 1/31/2008 UTEK 33.9 1.7 0.12 4.1 29.3 -13.47% (0.2) 0.05 -- 116.5 (5.5) (0.01) 2.3 134.1 5.2 0.39 15.1 1/31/2008 VRSN 380.8 94.8 0.29 131.1 390.6 2.56% 99.0 0.31 132.8 1,494.0 330.7 1.01 459.0 1,643.4 431.7 1.36 573.4
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Earnings Estimate Cheat Sheet – Jan 30-31, 2008
Sandisk cost accounting seems good... for them
I thought this was worth reprinting:
The resulting price falls halved Toshiba's operating margin in its chip business to 4.8 percent in October-December from 10 percent in the previous quarter, and cut the unit's profit by 60 percent.
Toshiba has a lot more moving parts but they're saying the margin degradation came primarily from NAND flash.
So Sandisk is injecting vast amounts of working capital into an off balance sheet JV (Flashvision, which they co-own with Toshiba) that's hurting Toshiba's results substantially and yet Sandisk reports pretty healthy product gross margins and profits.
I just don't think Sandisk's financial statements give a clear picture of the health of the company. They don't tell you what their real manufacturing costs are. I think it's a deceptive structure.
Memory fades further
Powerchip reported a gross margin of -71%. Last quarter it was -13%.
Promos cut capex substantially yesterday. Elpida followed today with a cut 25% below analyst expectations.
This article rehashes some of the other recent negative data points of the memory capex market.
I don't like the memory capex sector at all. Lam's guidance was far too optimistic. Varian, Lam, KLA Tencor, Mattson... all these stocks have a lot further to fall. Estimates are way too high.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Yahoo Q4:2007 Results
Yahoo reports revenues a touch light with operating income 10% better than estimates. They guide the full year 2008 revenues ex-tac (traffic acquisition costs) to a range of 5.3 - 5.8 billion with the street using a "soft" number of 5.8 billion. Their operating income guidance looks downright lousy. The stock was telegraphing numbers coming down -- look at the sickly chart (click on it for a close-up).
They're still in a lot of flux. The old guard must go but they won't unless they're forced out. It's a very valuable media property in terms of market share and user base. The question is how low does the stock price have to go to force large media companies to buy a fixer-upper. It's not going to be easy to hold onto through the bonfire of the vanities to come. The problem with a story like this is the stock needs to get beaten up for something good to happen for shareholders... it's bad but I can't tell you exactly when it's bad enough. There's probably easier places to make money than here.
Pass.