Broadcom (BRCM) 2Q:2008 Guidance

They're saying 1.075 - 1.125 bil, street is closer to 1.02 bil. It's good guidance. Gross margins will decline slightly, that's fine as this quarter's are far above next quarter's estimates.

$28 near-term is my guess.

Yahoo (YHOO) 1Q:2008 Results

Number looks fine but I think people were really looking for something explosive here. I'd hate to see what it would look like if they weren't desperately trying to prove that they're worth more than their share price.

I think Microsoft is going to keep make loud, booming noise about how their proposed price is fair and it will probably drown out the squeaky Who-like voice of Yahoo crying out injustice from their tiny, endangered kingdom.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

Broadcom (BRCM) 1Q:2008 Results

Broadcom came in at the higher end of their guidance with profitability far better than estimates, likely on higher royalty revenues than models carry. I get non-gaap gross margins of 53.9% which is better than consensus of 52.6% but doesn't seem to compensate for the royalties. Expenses look better than expected, though, and non-gaap operating income comes in as much as 50mm better than estimates. Even if I back out the 35mm of royalty income (pure margin) they reported, the operating income is better... and some royalty income had to be expected. They're guiding to growth in all of their business lines due to good customer visibility. Though this stock has had a pretty good move off the bottom, it never belonged at $18 in the first place. I think it still has room to move higher assuming guidance is okay... and it should be.

Stock has some room to $28 just to get to its 200 day moving average. We're probably going to trend to that level.

VMWare (VMW) 1Q:2008 Results

VMWare beats by 20mm on the top line, guides next Q for 55% growth, which equates to 460mm, slightly below 462mm consensus (will prob be interpreted as conservatism). Rumors had abounded they would miss numbers and the stock is very tight to borrow due to large short interest and small float. Consequently, stock is up ~15% on current quarter numbers better than expected. Balance sheet looks pretty clean -- DSO down slightly sequentially (customers paying them promptly) and deferred revenues up healthily in line with revenue. Unlikely it will come in much as shorts are near-term stuck.

Google (GOOG) trades $560, Yahoo (YHOO) on tap

Google can go higher, I guess, but I think the "easy" money has been made. The chart suggested a post-quarter move to $560 and that's what we got. Fast. So much for me buying it on a pullback to $480.

Yahoo reports tonight. It's pretty obvious they're going to try to show the best side they possibly can and pull out all the stops to get Microsoft to pay more. They haven't even reported yet and I already doubt the quality and truthfulness of their results. It's kind of sad.

DRAM contract higher

DRAM makers are trying to push through price increases in the face of their own high inventory levels and a reluctance to continue to sell product below cash cost. 1gb and 2gb were the strongest, moving up 7-10%. It would surprise me somewhat if these prices were to stick as the impetus isn't demand... it's desperation.

Texas Instruments (TXN) 1Q:2008 Results

Texan reports basically in line for the current Q and guides next Q to a range of 3.2 bil to 3.5 bil with EPS of 42-48 cents. Though I'm directionally correct, I thought they'd be more conservative in light of the wireless inventory correction I see coming for them. Regardless, I think this stock will trade to the mid-20s over the next several weeks.

Texan blamed the economy. I blame an overly optimistic distributor channel and a brewing inventory problem in low end handsets. Tomato, tomahto.

Xilinx (XLNX)

I put small out short at 25.25...

Just keeping the log -- I had suggested shorting it on Friday if it traded at 25. It didn't. I think they'll have to lower guidance when they report this week.

NAND contract prices follow spot higher

NAND contract prices were negotiated higher for the second half of April by 10-13%. This reflects the recent spot strength, Hynix capacity cutbacks, and a stated goal of raising prices from the major NAND manufacturers.

The adjustments were as follows:

MLC 64gb +13.0%
MLC 32gb +11.5%
MLC 16gb + 9.9%
MLC 8gb +10.7%
MLC 4gb + 2.5%

(Source: inSpectrum Tech.)

Texas Instruments 1Q:2008 Preview

Texan already lowered guidance at the mid-quarter update for the current quarter. That won't stop them from guiding to below consensus for next quarter. Analog is probably fine. Wireless and DLP are where the problems lie. Wireless is about 35% of business and there's a widespread inventory correction going on. Texas Instruments has only recently become aware of this weakness. As I have said before, Texan has laggy vision with regard to wireless business trends – they sell into a distribution channel which sells into an OEM channel which sells into the wireless carrier channel which sells to an end user. They're very removed from the current state of business as a result. DLP revenues are also subject to a downward revision as they're losing the digital TV battle to LCD and plasma.

Expect to see wireless guidance come down roughly 5-10% relative to consensus and DLP weaker which should bring the overall top line guidance in with a midpoint of $3.3 bil – I'm figuring a range of $3.175 - $3.425 bil for the quarter – the street is at roughly 3.45 bil for next quarter. Gross margins should remain roughly flat at 53.5%. I'm thinking EPS guidance will be about 40-44 cents which is below the consensus of 48 cents.

The unfortunate thing is the street is also cautious and I'm not sure how that will play into the stock reaction. I remain negative but I have no position in Texas Instruments at present. I may be short by the end of the day. We'll see.