Earnings Estimate Cheat Sheet – August 4, August 5, August 6, August 7, August 8 2008

Estimated Reporting Date	Symbol	Revenue Estimate Current Q	Operating Profit Estimate Current Q	EPS Estimate Current Q	EBITDA Estimate Current Q	Revenue Estimate Next Q	Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent	Operating Profit Estimate Next Q	EPS Estimate Next Q	EBITDA Estimate Next Q	Revenue Estimate Full Year	Operating Profit Estimate Full Year	EPS Estimate Full Year	EBITDA Estimate Full Year	Revenue Estimate Next Year	Operating Profit Estimate Next Year	EPS Estimate Next Year	EBITDA Estimate Next Year
8/4/2008	ACTS	23.8	4.5	0.10	--	26.7	11.95%	5.3	0.12	--	111.1	30.2	0.48	44.9	112.5	33.7	0.34	29.1
8/4/2008	ACTU	34.0	6.7	0.07	7.6	34.8	2.42%	7.8	0.08	8.8	137.9	27.2	0.30	30.1	154.2	35.0	0.38	38.3
8/4/2008	BLKB	72.7	17.7	0.24	19.7	79.2	8.98%	19.4	0.26	21.8	302.0	72.5	0.98	81.8	350.3	86.9	1.17	93.6
8/4/2008	CMVT	335.1	34.5	0.18	48.5	369.3	10.18%	37.2	0.18	51.7	1,192.4	110.4	0.60	173.6	1,589.7	135.7	0.68	203.8
8/4/2008	DISH	2,920.1	499.9	0.54	771.2	2,986.9	2.29%	513.2	0.54	768.0	11,656.8	2,028.3	2.23	3,147.7	12,439.1	2,198.4	2.51	3,363.8
8/4/2008	MIPS	28.2	4.0	0.07	5.3	29.0	2.87%	4.6	0.07	5.9	104.2	10.4	0.14	14.0	125.4	24.3	0.39	31.2
8/4/2008	RACK	76.2	(1.8)	(0.01)	2.8	91.1	19.52%	(0.3)	0.02	2.6	352.9	2.1	0.16	14.0	399.9	4.8	0.22	--
8/4/2008	RTEC	36.9	(2.3)	(0.03)	--	38.6	4.40%	(0.9)	(0.01)	--	154.6	(4.8)	(0.01)	11.0	186.2	16.0	0.45	--
8/4/2008	SMTL	65.3	4.6	0.10	--	64.5	-1.33%	5.0	0.12	--	241.4	11.1	0.26	18.1	282.3	29.7	0.62	62.5
8/4/2008	STEC	53.1	5.3	0.08	7.0	59.4	11.83%	7.0	0.10	8.2	229.4	26.1	0.37	33.1	283.6	47.4	0.70	48.6
8/4/2008	TMA	71.8	--	0.07	--	79.9	11.29%	--	0.01	--	(1,338.3)	--	(12.00)	--	388.9	--	0.27	--
8/4/2008	VSH	739.7	64.7	0.25	119.2	740.6	0.13%	64.0	0.26	121.1	2,957.2	243.4	0.93	462.2	3,048.6	291.6	1.11	517.4
8/5/2008	AMKR	697.9	87.2	0.28	161.0	740.3	6.07%	106.8	0.35	187.0	2,893.5	405.1	1.34	695.0	3,048.2	453.0	1.38	743.6
8/5/2008	CHKP	200.4	101.7	0.44	104.0	221.2	10.41%	116.2	0.49	123.0	812.0	416.8	1.78	421.0	873.2	448.4	1.94	453.5
8/5/2008	CSC	4,292.9	242.0	0.76	562.7	4,290.3	-0.06%	270.7	0.90	610.5	17,667.6	1,286.9	4.30	2,596.6	18,479.8	1,388.7	4.68	2,738.9
8/5/2008	CSCO	10,309.9	2,968.8	0.39	3,402.4	10,390.2	0.78%	3,001.4	0.40	3,454.7	39,488.9	11,557.4	1.55	13,155.4	43,712.3	12,741.8	1.69	14,439.4
8/5/2008	GLBC	649.5	--	(1.25)	56.0	660.3	1.67%	--	(1.23)	73.0	2,622.9	(70.6)	(4.01)	275.6	2,843.5	5.9	(2.98)	356.4
8/5/2008	INSP	34.9	(1.5)	(0.01)	3.8	36.3	3.97%	(2.8)	(0.01)	4.4	153.0	(3.9)	(0.04)	21.0	158.6	(2.1)	0.26	24.4
8/5/2008	JCOM	61.0	25.8	0.40	28.4	63.2	3.63%	26.9	0.41	29.3	248.1	104.3	1.61	115.6	283.3	124.2	1.87	132.2
8/5/2008	LEAP	477.6	35.3	0.03	130.0	504.3	5.60%	19.9	(0.25)	119.0	1,977.5	99.5	(0.76)	486.1	2,507.3	143.1	(0.05)	605.5
8/5/2008	LOOK	18.2	(0.2)	0.01	1.3	18.3	0.55%	0.0	0.02	1.4	73.5	(0.3)	0.05	5.5	81.3	0.7	0.11	6.9
8/5/2008	MFLX	165.3	12.8	0.36	18.9	179.7	8.72%	13.1	0.36	18.9	693.0	60.9	1.67	86.5	804.5	57.2	1.40	84.7
8/5/2008	MVL	131.0	64.6	0.44	64.9	171.7	31.06%	80.2	0.55	79.6	556.2	291.4	1.99	287.4	608.7	275.8	1.97	284.7
8/5/2008	MOLX	869.4	101.5	0.41	165.1	878.2	1.01%	101.1	0.40	164.3	3,325.9	351.6	1.42	597.1	3,569.8	439.3	1.75	688.0
8/5/2008	NILE	74.5	4.3	0.17	5.9	74.3	-0.22%	4.1	0.17	6.0	350.5	23.3	1.03	31.7	404.4	28.4	1.25	37.7
8/5/2008	NNDS	198.0	40.9	0.57	50.6	215.2	8.68%	49.3	0.72	63.6	831.1	191.2	2.66	226.6	919.3	212.5	2.90	244.0
8/5/2008	OPWV	58.9	(2.9)	(0.03)	(1.0)	55.8	-5.37%	(1.6)	(0.01)	2.4	243.2	(16.0)	(0.17)	--	231.2	6.0	0.07	19.7
8/5/2008	PCLN	495.7	87.2	1.41	91.1	550.8	11.10%	128.9	2.05	133.8	1,880.7	343.8	5.54	363.2	2,228.1	456.7	6.95	475.0
8/5/2008	SMSI	23.0	4.1	0.11	5.1	26.5	15.46%	6.5	0.18	7.4	101.1	22.8	0.63	27.4	119.6	31.5	0.83	32.6
8/5/2008	SNCR	24.6	4.5	0.09	6.4	29.2	18.79%	6.5	0.12	8.4	117.0	26.5	0.48	34.5	140.1	36.6	0.66	41.7
8/5/2008	UNTD	120.2	21.4	0.28	35.8	120.0	-0.22%	20.7	0.29	36.6	483.6	86.5	1.18	151.1	466.3	79.2	1.08	148.4
8/5/2008	WBMD	89.1	7.0	0.09	14.2	99.6	11.80%	14.7	0.16	20.9	382.4	46.8	0.55	--	437.9	61.9	0.72	94.1
8/5/2008	WFMI	1,911.2	80.3	0.31	136.7	1,927.4	0.85%	70.3	0.27	129.3	8,164.4	301.9	1.15	558.1	9,453.9	395.1	1.52	690.7
8/6/2008	AIRN	20.6	(7.7)	(0.14)	(6.9)	23.8	15.33%	(6.1)	(0.11)	(5.4)	90.1	(28.2)	(0.50)	(25.0)	128.2	(17.5)	(0.20)	(8.7)
8/6/2008	ALTI	1.6	(7.8)	(0.09)	(7.5)	6.2	279.48%	(5.0)	(0.07)	(7.1)	18.4	(25.5)	(0.31)	(28.3)	23.5	(30.4)	(0.35)	(23.1)
8/6/2008	ANEN	33.0	1.7	0.13	4.0	33.3	0.89%	3.1	0.18	--	130.2	12.6	0.78	--	140.6	15.3	0.88	16.0
8/6/2008	AVT	4,606.9	191.6	0.80	208.2	4,434.0	-3.75%	176.7	0.74	191.8	17,878.7	742.3	3.14	801.2	18,648.6	805.9	3.35	874.3
8/6/2008	BBBB	76.4	9.7	0.12	12.3	82.6	8.13%	14.2	0.19	16.4	314.0	48.2	0.65	57.6	385.1	81.6	1.28	93.0
8/6/2008	CECO	423.2	2.0	0.06	23.8	415.4	-1.83%	9.2	0.10	32.7	1,737.2	71.0	0.62	159.7	1,769.1	95.3	0.72	188.4
8/6/2008	FRE	2,184.9	--	(0.53)	--	2,319.0	6.14%	--	(0.51)	--	8,591.7	--	(2.00)	--	11,166.2	--	0.58	--
8/6/2008	HILL	68.2	(4.9)	(0.12)	--	65.6	-3.81%	(4.2)	(0.10)	--	267.2	(16.6)	(0.36)	--	333.0	13.7	(0.04)	--
8/6/2008	KLIC	182.6	0.4	0.00	--	188.5	3.24%	3.0	0.05	--	773.7	--	0.25	--	778.3	27.7	0.55	--
8/6/2008	MXWL	17.7	(2.9)	(0.17)	(1.9)	18.1	2.67%	(2.5)	(0.16)	(1.4)	72.4	(10.8)	(0.73)	(6.9)	92.9	(4.2)	(0.32)	(1.9)
8/6/2008	ONNN	552.5	90.9	0.19	122.4	567.9	2.80%	99.5	0.21	131.6	2,117.7	359.5	0.81	440.5	2,306.2	429.8	0.95	526.9
8/6/2008	PLNR	71.9	(4.5)	(0.26)	--	74.9	4.17%	(3.8)	(0.20)	--	297.2	(15.0)	(0.94)	--	314.2	(11.4)	(0.64)	--
8/6/2008	QSII	52.0	15.8	0.37	17.9	56.0	7.73%	17.4	0.41	19.5	230.1	72.9	1.69	80.9	268.8	89.0	2.00	96.4
8/6/2008	S	9,167.0	(244.7)	0.03	1,919.4	8,989.1	-1.94%	(266.0)	0.02	1,868.3	36,388.2	(1,138.3)	0.07	7,508.2	35,279.1	(376.7)	0.07	7,531.9
8/6/2008	SINA	89.5	22.1	0.40	26.8	98.3	9.80%	25.2	0.43	29.9	360.4	86.8	1.57	105.3	448.3	121.6	2.05	143.9
8/6/2008	TKLC	111.1	10.9	0.15	--	110.9	-0.17%	15.8	0.17	--	467.8	73.2	0.80	84.6	500.3	76.3	0.89	93.1
8/6/2008	TWC	4,329.7	787.8	0.32	1,562.0	4,353.4	0.55%	810.2	0.32	1,606.0	17,328.2	3,176.6	1.27	6,295.1	18,666.6	3,624.7	1.36	6,909.1
8/6/2008	UTSI	603.4	(31.2)	(0.28)	--	237.7	-60.61%	(22.6)	(0.29)	--	1,742.5	(91.2)	(0.44)	--	1,245.5	(24.0)	(0.31)	--
8/6/2008	VRSN	231.4	73.6	0.23	105.7	240.6	3.98%	81.1	0.26	113.7	947.4	312.0	1.00	446.7	1,122.0	447.7	1.59	581.6
8/7/2008	ACS	1,623.8	174.5	0.93	276.9	1,612.9	-0.67%	169.5	0.91	274.7	6,170.5	678.3	3.51	1,066.0	6,641.5	738.4	3.93	1,158.2
8/7/2008	ANSS	110.6	46.5	0.38	52.8	116.6	5.43%	49.1	0.37	51.4	467.2	201.8	1.57	228.3	554.6	244.6	1.84	271.9
8/7/2008	BRKS	132.4	(4.1)	(0.04)	5.0	133.8	1.02%	(1.4)	0.00	6.0	559.1	(7.6)	0.06	28.1	588.5	17.5	0.27	53.0
8/7/2008	CHINA	103.6	1.4	0.01	5.5	103.0	-0.62%	1.9	0.01	6.0	413.3	7.3	0.04	21.1	455.2	23.2	0.16	37.0
8/7/2008	DIOD	115.1	17.3	0.34	24.2	134.4	16.71%	20.7	0.40	28.3	498.0	75.8	1.55	105.0	596.0	104.8	1.92	131.2
8/7/2008	DIVX	21.3	3.3	0.10	5.0	24.8	16.52%	6.0	0.13	7.5	98.1	23.6	0.56	29.4	116.8	32.7	0.66	37.1
8/7/2008	ELX	114.0	24.8	0.21	--	116.3	2.05%	26.6	0.22	--	489.5	131.9	1.12	151.2	491.8	119.2	0.99	157.8
8/7/2008	EMKR	78.5	(3.8)	(0.03)	--	98.9	25.87%	1.4	0.03	--	280.6	(14.3)	(0.21)	--	459.6	25.8	0.38	--
8/7/2008	IDCC	58.5	6.3	0.12	10.8	58.8	0.42%	7.2	0.14	12.4	233.4	31.1	0.57	50.9	248.6	44.8	0.71	59.1
8/7/2008	ITWO	63.7	5.9	0.11	--	64.9	1.83%	7.9	0.23	--	254.4	29.5	0.75	--	261.2	38.3	0.92	--
8/7/2008	KNOT	31.2	3.8	0.09	6.1	28.6	-8.44%	2.5	0.07	5.0	111.4	8.3	0.23	18.3	127.6	19.2	0.43	29.8
8/7/2008	MVSN	149.3	37.6	0.22	47.1	165.9	11.11%	51.2	0.30	60.9	659.6	174.8	1.19	220.0	671.5	264.9	1.75	292.1
8/7/2008	NCTY	66.2	15.3	0.49	24.4	67.4	1.83%	14.8	0.48	25.1	270.8	62.8	1.89	97.0	331.2	63.7	2.08	107.1
8/7/2008	OPTV	26.1	(1.9)	(0.01)	1.7	25.3	-3.05%	(2.3)	(0.01)	1.4	111.1	(0.8)	0.04	13.7	131.1	11.0	0.10	26.8
8/7/2008	WEDC	20.6	1.7	0.07	2.9	21.5	4.38%	2.0	0.07	3.2	80.6	5.5	0.22	9.4	88.7	8.9	0.30	--
8/8/2008	ACLS	82.5	(11.3)	(0.12)	(6.4)	82.0	-0.67%	(11.2)	(0.11)	(7.6)	337.5	(41.9)	(0.39)	(24.1)	374.5	(18.4)	(0.11)	(5.2)
8/8/2008	MSTR	87.3	20.7	1.08	21.0	90.1	3.18%	22.3	1.18	22.0	362.9	84.8	4.46	89.0	400.3	97.2	5.42	110.0

STEC beats, raises

Current quarter beats consensus coming in at 56.2 mil with street at 53.1 mil. EPS beat by a penny, coming in at 9 cents. Gross margins came in above consensus at 35.3% with the street closer to 34.4%. Operating income was 6.7 mil, street was looking for ~5.3 mil. Guidance of 61-63 mil and 10-11 cents, street is at 59.4 mil and 10 cents. Inventory jumped to 78 mil from 39 mil q/q. The company had raised 35 mil to build inventory for anticipated growth and new design wins -- they say in their press release they expect inventory days to trend down over the next several quarters. The company indicates they had a second major enterprise OEM win. They have been qualified at several notebook vendors and expect to begin shipment into that market next quarter.

All in all, a beat on most metrics. One could hope for more leverage but there's a few moving parts in the business. It's unclear from the release how much SSD is contributing to results -- I'll need to hear the call.

Still long.

Lam Research (LRCX) 1Q:2009 results

Lam reports much better than expected for the current quarter, beating top and bottom lines. Stock trades up 3. Guidance is significantly below the street at 425-455 mil with street looking for over 500 mil. Despite the dozen questions they got about it, the company says September is the trough for memory spending and foundry spending. They're even predicting a memory shortage in December.

I was thinking they'd give up the notion of an improving December order quarter and they didn't do that. The stock is interesting in that if they're right they're the only ones that believe the case they're laying out right now. It's hard to envision memory shortages with so much oversupply at present but there have been a lot of recent cutbacks in planned capacity additions and the market is dynamic.

For now, Lam is still 75% memory-related business and near-term that's getting worse not better. I can't tell you to buy it... but I can tell you when the cycle turns to buy this one first.

Atheros (ATHR) 2Q:2008 results

Quarter was slightly better on the top line with a slight gross margin miss. EPS beat consensus by a penny due to a lower tax rate, which averted an EPS miss.

Revenue guidance for next quarter of 13-15% sequential growth equates to 136-139mm, which is slightly better than consensus. Gross margin guidance of 48.5 - 49.5% is well below estimates. Broadcom had a similar dynamic to their quarter -- much bigger revenue blowout with a forecasted decline in gross margins -- the stock is down 20% since. I would expect Atheros to trade lower... in fact, I added to the short at 29 pre-opening.

Though 802.11 is a high growth market, Atheros is highly dependent on 802.11g -- the older flavor. It makes up 63% of revenues. As 802.11n is quickly becoming the mainstream part, 11g pricing will erode quickly. I don't expect their margin situation to change any time soon. The company has talked about adding in new lines of business with large TAMs (total addressable markets) -- this likely means they'll do a large acquisition at some point. Their future is fraught with pricing pressure and integration risk. I don't like it.

Atheros (ATHR) reporting tonight - shorting a little

Marvell and Broadcom were both excessively strong in 802.11 -- which isn't surprising as notebooks are so strong and they're starting to get some handset penetration with the technology. I wonder, though, if Atheros couldn't be seeing some competitive pressure -- if that strength at Marvell and Broadcom isn't a bad omen. Both MRVL and BRCM have come in pretty good since reporting.

The chart seems very iffy to me. I see resistance at 31.5 and a lot of lines below.

This trade is risk/reward. I think I might lose 80 cents and I could make $10. So I'm going to try it. I have nothing special.