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Friday, January 25, 2008

Is NAND market ready to crash?

Is NAND market ready to crash?

Whoa there. Crash is a strong word. There's going to be a definitive slowdown for a while. I would think the NAND market gets markedly worse between now and the fall ramp into the holiday build. I would expect prices will be significantly lower by the time September rolls around, so I'm not saying get out your buy tickets. You have to remember that as prices of memory decline, it usually means companies put more memory inside devices. It's a good thing if you're a consumer... not so good if you're in the business of selling the chips.

I think that in 2010 you'll start to see solid state drives take hold as price points become more attractive -- I want to see 80gb drives under $100. That's down quite a bit from here -- the best price I can find for a 32gb NAND drive is about $350 right now -- which puts an 80gb drive at about $875, so you're talking down 85% per gb of pain before the market is somewhere reasonable.

I guess that might be considered a crash, huh.

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