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Thursday, January 24, 2008

Lam Research preview

Tough to bet against a good management team but I think you have to worry about the effect of a slowing DRAM and NAND environment on a company with 80% of their sales into the memory capex market. Semicaps are tricky because they trade with a long tail -- investors play them off their outlook 9-12 months out, not on the current numbers. Current numbers are probably fine. It's the outlook a year from now that worries me. NAND and DRAM pricing have been horrible this quarter.

I'd stay away from LRCX tonight.

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