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Wednesday, March 12, 2008

DRAM still sucks

Contract pricing dropped another 3% in the first half of March. Credit Suisse is raising the possibility that Hynix could cut capex yet again (after cutting just 2 months ago). S&P is looking at downgrading Micron credit ratings.

Expect to see an awful lot of red this quarter. I have to remain negative on semicaps with a lot of exposure to memory -- Mattson (MTSN), Lam Research (LRCX), and Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) have more than 50% of their business leveraged to memory spending and look particularly vulnerable to downward earnings forecasts.

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