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Thursday, June 26, 2008

Research In Motion (RIMM) aftermath

Gross margins light, opex much higher than expectations. Spending to continue for the foreseeable future. Midpoint of guidance indicates a moderation in the y/y growth rate -- but they've been growing at over 100% for the last several quarters... some slowdown was expected.

The timetable shift in the Bold is a potential problem in that RIMM relies on new product introductions to drive new unit shipments into the channel. Any substantial product delays will hamper their progress. I believe carriers that are not iPhone sellers are likely to heavily subsidize Blackberries to get at those high end wireless data users they need to bulk up their subscriber bases. I think that will drive substantial units over the next year.

The stock trades at a decent discount to its growth prospects already. Around $120 is the first place I'm going to look to restart a position... and I do think it will trade there near-term. It's a spot on the chart, frankly. It will equate to roughly 30* this year's estimate and 25 times next year's. I think that's fair.

Expectations were for a raise. Analysts were foaming at the bit on this last week. There's a lot of 'splainin to do.

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