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Thursday, June 26, 2008

Sandisk (SNDK) in the perfect storm

So I've hated Sandisk for a long time. Last quarter I said the stock belonged in the low 20s. It ran up to $33 instead on the notion that the co was being overly cautious and that Q2 would be the bottom for prod gross margins.

I'm a lot less negative on the stock at $20.

Right now you've got NAND contract down 25%, retail pricing terrible, the stock is clearly telegraphing they're going to miss estimates. Doesn't get a lot worse from a story perspective. I think the quarter is probably a miserable mess... but they kind of told us that would happen... and they've been saying all quarter that pricing isnt good, that retail is weaker.

It may still go lower but I'm wondering if the story is bad enough that it can get better from here.

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