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Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Mattson (MTSN) sheds some guidance

Mattson, a semicap supplying too many memory customers, cut guidance last night to 35mm from prior 40-42mm. Street was at 45mm. They cited ongoing cutbacks from memory manufacturers.

The second leg of the cutbacks is NAND. Memory remains a historically unsustainable percentage of semicap orders. NAND is starting to look like a horror show heading into the back half of the year with deteriorating contract and spot pricing, capacity ramps ongoing and retail pricing somewhere between bad and terrible.

Expect LRCX to remove the recovery in Q4 from their forecast when they report. You can kind of throw a dart to find a semicap with too much memory exposure but the heaviest are FORM, VSEA, MTSN, LRCX.

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