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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) guides

HP is guiding revenues and eps for the current quarter better than street consensus -- about 500 mil better on the top line and 4 cents better on the bottom. I'm surprised they're not seeing more of a slowdown.

The full year 2009 outlook is 5.0 - 7.5 bil below the consensus of 135 billion but the non-gaap earnings guidance is higher. As the stock trades at roughly 7* next year's earnings number as of last year's close, it's up over 10% in pre-market trading.

Tech could rally on this. I wouldn't step in front of it yet -- they have room to move higher. The SOX around 200 is compelling for longer-term players and the consensus in tech is decidedly negative. I don't have much tech short exposure presently.

I'm going to be offering Dell short at 11.80 as I think they're seeing more impact from a slowing consumer than HP. I'm also going to be scratching my head and wondering how HP is doing it.

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