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Monday, February 2, 2009

December SIA data tells us what we knew

Industry survey data during earnings season often reveals little that companies haven’t already told us.  This quarter is no exception.

December SIA data shows a 21% decline in units q/q and a 26% decline in revenue due to a 6% ASP decline.  The decline was most significant in DSP and analog shipments (TXN, ADI, NSM).  DRAM was down nearly 40% q/q vs typical seasonality of +10%.  Shipments of semiconductors are significantly slower than PC sell-through, which is likely to lead to inventory restocking sometime in the next 6 months if PC rates do not decelerate meaningfully.


I would note in the above chart that although units relative to trend bottomed in 1Q:02, the index didn’t begin to rally until 4Q:02.  The semiconductor index had been 1200 in 1Q:00 and had fallen 50% to 600 by 1Q:02.  It fell another 50% by 4Q:02.

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