Industry survey data during earnings season often reveals little that companies haven’t already told us. This quarter is no exception.
December SIA data shows a 21% decline in units q/q and a 26% decline in revenue due to a 6% ASP decline. The decline was most significant in DSP and analog shipments (TXN, ADI, NSM). DRAM was down nearly 40% q/q vs typical seasonality of +10%. Shipments of semiconductors are significantly slower than PC sell-through, which is likely to lead to inventory restocking sometime in the next 6 months if PC rates do not decelerate meaningfully.
I would note in the above chart that although units relative to trend bottomed in 1Q:02, the index didn’t begin to rally until 4Q:02. The semiconductor index had been 1200 in 1Q:00 and had fallen 50% to 600 by 1Q:02. It fell another 50% by 4Q:02.