Price pressure is the main thesis. The smartphone category has become intensely competitive and carriers, being flooded with handset options from so many vendors, are demanding price concessions. RIMM is entirely smartphones and smartphones are the only real growth category in cells. Consequently, RIMM has the most share to lose as competition intensifies in the space. Furthermore, Think drags out the layoffs will impact business bit. RIMM is extremely skewed to enterprise linked devices – they have arguably the best back-end push delivery service. They’re also very tied to financial verticals as blackberries and bankers are synonymous. As employment and bankers has become antonymous, presumably they are deactivated. This last part is somewhat implausible as unemployed bankers need a blackberry to plot their next ponzi scheme.
$30 is the price I get on the chart, too. Neat.