March 3, 2009

Apple rolls out updates to iMac, Mac Pro and Mac Mini line.  As Apple has product introduction meeting scheduled for March 24th, speculation will quickly turn to what will be intro’d on the 24th.  The iPhone nano is likely to be the speculation.  Long Apple.

Xilinx and Altera both guide higher, Xilinx somewhat more dramatically so.  Both cite strength in 3G shipments to China.  Licenses were awarded last month.  Nokia and Qualcomm are likely beneficiaries of this trend also, though handset shipments remain punky.  Temporarily long Nokia.

First Solar (FSLR) acquired assets of defunct Optisolar for $400 mil, who had big PGE contract.  Cost of contract estimated at 5-10 cents/mw, which is a decent portion of margin to give up.  Co says will add ~55 mil to revs this year but cut EPS, will be accretive in 2010.  Raymond James upgrades the stock to a strong buy from a buy.  I’m offering stock at 109.  If it trades at 112 I’ll get stopped out.  I bought ENER yesterday in anticipation of Measure B passing in California – mandatory quotas for solar panels in Los Angeles – ENER is tied to Solar Integrated, which gets bid preference in the event of Measure B passage.  California is obviously our most eco-friendly state and likely to pass the bill, despite its problems.  Also on the radar, there’s a solar conference in Munich starting today and the news flow there is likely important as Germany is the biggest subsidizer (100%) of solar technology in the world at present.

DJ 6760 is pretty close to the next line I have – I’d prefer 6700.  I’d rather see the VIX 65 or higher.  There’s lots of fear, not enough panic.  We’re eligible to rally but I don’t know how strong it can be with the sell-offs so methodical and the lack of a climactic low.