Earnings Estimates Cheat Sheet – Jan 29-30, 2008

Symbol	Revenue Estimate Current Q	Operating Profit Estimate Current Q	EPS Estimate Current Q	EBITDA Estimate Current Q	Revenue Estimate Next Q	Sequential Revenue Growth Estimate, Percent	Operating Profit Estimate Next Q	EPS Estimate Next Q	EBITDA Estimate Next Q	Revenue Estimate Full Year	Operating Profit Estimate Full Year	EPS Estimate Full Year	EBITDA Estimate Full Year	Revenue Estimate Next Year	Operating Profit Estimate Next Year	EPS Estimate Next Year	EBITDA Estimate Next Year
AMIS	154.6	24.5	0.17	--	152.0	-1.66%	22.0	0.16	--	616.7	86.2	0.65	155.5	650.0	102.8	0.77	179.0
ANEN	31.7	3.7	0.20	4.4	32.6	2.70%	3.9	0.23	5.0	132.9	15.5	0.90	23.1	147.8	20.1	1.10	23.9
BBOX	256.8	26.8	0.81	33.2	252.8	-1.52%	26.5	0.80	29.6	1,022.5	99.0	3.12	125.5	1,060.3	119.0	3.66	141.0
CYMI	139.0	30.0	0.69	36.2	140.6	1.10%	30.7	0.70	36.2	520.8	115.4	2.49	140.4	565.2	126.9	2.86	153.2
FDRY	166.1	45.1	0.23	--	164.0	-1.21%	41.1	0.21	--	604.1	140.4	0.75	--	699.3	181.8	0.91	--
FLEX	8,597.7	280.4	0.26	378.7	7,774.9	-9.57%	263.5	0.23	376.2	27,075.1	873.8	0.95	1,250.8	35,698.3	1,322.9	1.22	1,758.7
HIFN	11.7	0.4	0.06	--	12.5	7.25%	0.7	0.08	--	51.8	2.8	0.32	--	--	--	0.70	--
HLIT	83.6	11.8	0.15	--	79.3	-5.12%	10.5	0.14	--	307.4	35.4	0.48	62.1	351.1	51.1	0.65	--
HTCH	205.8	11.9	0.37	41.9	195.7	-4.87%	8.6	0.28	37.0	801.5	39.7	1.21	155.6	876.8	68.3	1.65	161.9
IFX	--	--	--	--	--	#VALUE!	--	--	--	10,727.0	--	(1.61)	1,083.0	12,903.0	--	0.06	2,838.0
IKAN	30.0	(1.1)	0.01	--	30.7	2.27%	(1.0)	0.01	--	107.7	(17.4)	(0.43)	--	131.7	0.5	0.18	--
INFA	109.3	23.1	0.22	--	101.3	-7.26%	18.7	0.16	--	386.7	68.5	0.72	78.0	444.1	91.2	0.74	97.0
NETL	32.0	7.1	0.33	--	33.6	5.02%	7.5	0.33	--	108.8	22.7	1.19	--	144.2	33.4	1.45	--
PXLW	26.5	(0.4)	(0.01)	--	24.9	-6.22%	(1.5)	(0.02)	--	105.5	(11.9)	(0.22)	--	111.3	(3.6)	(0.02)	--
SMI	407.5	(6.0)	(0.05)	--	406.6	-0.23%	(12.0)	(0.05)	--	1,562.2	--	(0.09)	708.2	1,764.2	36.0	0.01	766.8
WBSN	78.1	19.0	0.23	20.0	77.0	-1.49%	21.2	0.26	--	226.4	56.9	0.90	62.4	309.5	90.9	1.13	98.0
YHOO	1,406.5	174.5	0.11	375.4	1,360.7	-3.25%	170.7	0.11	333.3	5,120.0	692.2	0.43	1,336.3	5,884.6	837.9	0.52	1,656.6
CYMI	139.0	30.0	0.69	36.2	140.6	1.10%	30.7	0.70	36.2	520.8	115.4	2.49	140.4	565.2	126.9	2.86	153.2
UMC	861.2	95.4	0.04	--	830.6	-3.55%	70.8	0.04	--	3,285.8	263.0	0.20	1,382.0	3,729.0	446.0	0.19	1,739.0
ADPT	42.9	(5.2)	(0.00)	(5.9)	40.4	-5.92%	(4.6)	0.00	(6.0)	169.7	(30.4)	(0.08)	--	152.1	--	(0.05)	--
AMZN	5,372.4	286.9	0.48	396.2	3,924.9	-26.94%	199.1	0.35	298.3	14,518.9	671.6	1.12	1,079.7	18,245.8	958.4	1.63	1,468.6
AUO	4,765.9	1,095.9	1.23	--	4,151.4	-12.89%	503.8	0.54	--	14,778.6	1,978.2	2.14	4,535.0	18,765.2	3,478.2	3.46	5,749.0
CDNS	470.3	172.2	0.46	199.5	393.2	-16.40%	107.6	0.30	133.8	1,628.1	490.7	1.35	593.1	1,744.7	558.3	1.53	661.8
CRUS	49.0	3.5	0.08	6.9	46.9	-4.28%	2.9	0.06	7.1	184.0	12.6	0.27	23.5	216.4	23.1	0.42	38.3
ESLR	20.0	(6.2)	(0.04)	(3.7)	20.0	0.45%	(6.2)	(0.03)	(2.6)	67.7	(26.7)	(0.25)	(17.6)	103.7	(19.9)	(0.07)	(5.2)
MTSN	49.5	(2.0)	0.00	0.0	57.0	15.19%	1.1	0.05	--	264.4	21.8	0.42	19.0	280.2	26.6	0.58	35.0
NEWP	114.5	8.7	0.20	--	111.5	-2.64%	6.5	0.17	--	442.0	31.0	0.68	52.8	468.7	38.6	0.81	62.0
NVLS	361.4	53.1	0.36	73.6	356.0	-1.49%	50.1	0.34	75.8	1,568.0	258.8	1.64	328.6	1,481.9	229.0	1.55	297.3
SBUX	2,771.8	331.8	0.27	466.1	2,652.9	-4.29%	271.0	0.22	391.7	11,001.6	1,211.3	1.01	1,752.0	12,659.6	1,423.7	1.21	2,036.9
SLAB	95.6	20.8	0.38	--	90.0	-5.82%	17.4	0.34	--	332.6	58.3	1.24	--	393.5	85.6	1.63	--
SPIL	567.2	150.7	0.25	--	518.2	-8.65%	131.4	0.20	--	2,001.7	509.8	0.90	744.0	2,317.0	615.1	0.89	835.0

No posts this morning

EMC looks solid.

Due to unforseen circumstances there will be no posts this morning.

Sandisk Q1:2008 Guidance

Wow, that's pretty terrible. They guide to 775-875mm for Q1, street is ~1 bil. There's that 150mm miss I was talking about. They guide the full year to 15-25% growth, street is at 23%. Numbers will come down pretty hard. I'll have some more summary tomorrow AM.

EMC down 10% off VMW results

I wouldn't go near VMW as this is their second miss in a row. Investors are infatuated with VMW -- I'm not sure I get it.

I like EMC. Remote storage is a burgeoning market. The stock has retreated from 25 to 15 on fears of a slowdown in corporate spending -- which I'm sure will come to pass on some level -- but the stock is too cheap to throw away here. I'd be a buyer around 15. $16 puts it at 10* next year's earnings estimate. Seems compelling.

Atheros Q4:2007 Results

Atheros hits the top line estimate and beats bottom line by 6 cents. Looks good... but with stock trading at 17* the out-year estimate and their ties to the PC market, which will show more seasonality than recent years past, I'm not interested in buying it here.

I like the wifi market but I also think its going to be much trickier from here. 802.11n handles video and its quickly becoming the mainstream option on store-bought notebooks. That means 802.11n is going to turn into a price compression market as we move through 2008.

Sandisk Q4:2007 Results

Welp, so much for that. Numbers come in better on bottom line driven by strong product gross margins -- 29.7 vs ests of ~28ish. They did miss consensus revenues by a meager 20mm but I wouldn't make a big deal out of that with the stock down like this.

Sandisk is a channel fill company -- they sell to retailers, not consumers -- so wait for the guidance.

This comment gives me some pause:

"Despite current uncertainties in the worldwide economy and a
challenging industry pricing environment in the first quarter, we
expect to grow our top and bottom line in 2008, driven by continuing
strength in our mobile markets, our expanding international retail
footprint and our competitive cost structure."

... they'd better grow in 2008. Estimates are looking for a 23% increase in sales over this year.

Stock initially jammed higher but is now back to its closing price.

Sandisk Q4:2007 Preview

Ok, this is going to be a tricky one so stay with me.

Sandisk is kind of the bellwether stock for NAND flash but its intensely misunderstood by the street.

Sandisk is effectively a virtual foundry for NAND. They own their own fabs through a joint venture with Toshiba called Flashvision but the investment is held off balance sheet. I hate this about the company as it really obscures the key area of fortune for them.

Their business has a large royalty component due to intellectual property patents they license to virtually all NAND producers. This is gravy -- royalties are 100% gross margin, though I would make a case that these should be looked at against legal expenses as patent enforcement is the biggest cost component to intellectual property revenues.

So that's the background. The results they report are those of a packager. They buy raw NAND from their joint venture (and a bit from Samsung if they need more than they're producing), package it into retail cards and sell them to the channel for consumption by consumers.

What I don't like about this set-up in terms of analysis is they can kinda print anything they want in terms of "cost of goods" on raw NAND purchases from the JV.

Pricing in the channel has been lousy, but it was really in December that it collapsed. There were big rebates available towards the end of the year (like most years before).

The stock is also subject to Apple supply chain push and pull which further obscures expectations. Sandisk does not supply Apple with parts for their iPod line, but whenever Apple is accumulating parts, people drive up the price of Sandisk because the price environment improves. I think when raw NAND goes up, it actually creates a cost increase for Sandisk as they're a buyer of NAND and a seller of retail cards. So when pricing goes down, it creates the inverse situation -- a better cost environment for Sandisk.

The best of all possible worlds for Sandisk is a tight retail card environment coupled with a benign contract NAND market. What they got instead this past quarter was a strong NAND environment at the beginning of the quarter due to Apple pulling on the channel for parts, followed by a weaker contract and spot market for NAND and a soft retail environment.

To me, this spells top line miss. I think they should put up a number closer to 1.1 billion versus the 1.26 billion the street is expecting. I would expect guidance is couched with an awful lot of caution. I'm pretty nervous about putting that in print but there you go... its in print.

Technical analysis tells me the stock is a buy at $18 and a sale over $28. As I said, this is a very volatile stock and my view of their business is decidedly different from that of the street.

It's probably a short but I'd be very small if I put it on. The stock has been free-falling all quarter and to some degree expectations have to be below the printed estimates.