Nvidia (NVDA) chart

You have to throw out so much negative data to buy it here -- slower desktop, Intel roadmap, lower wafer starts at TSM. This level is sort of make or break in the chart. Seems like you want to short it if it breaks... but I always come at this stock like I want to buy it for its dominance in graphics chips and cards.

I should probably be on the sidelines but I own some. Sounds like I'm getting ready to sell it in disgust, doesn't it?

Apple (AAPL) buying NAND

Apple is the primary driver of the NAND market by virtue of their hegemony in the mp3 player market. Nobody does it better.

Though no one will directly confirm it, it's pretty clear from the strength in spot and contract prices that Apple is restocking NAND. Since guiding iPods down after their last report, the company was dead in the water allocation-wise -- we're talking bins of NAND marked Apple that just sat there gathering dust all quarter. Since the close of their March quarter, they're back in some force from what I gather. This probably means an iPod refresh is coming in the next 3 months -- probably with more storage space as prices have come down quite a bit. One could also speculate that Apple has been getting very good prices from cash-starved memory manufacturers and this will bolster gross margins in the June quarter as costs fall. Furthermore, I believe the 3G iPhone ramp was slated to begin in earnest in April, which also could explain the activity.

Whatever the reason, they're back.

Half the output of the Intel/Micron JV IMFlash goes to Apple. I like and own Micron.

Blockbuster (BBI) + Circuit City (CC) = Busted Circuit

Blockbuster can't even manage their own business all that well, much less Circuit City's. Blockbuster is blowing all their cash buying a struggling consumer electronics retailer. I don't get it.

Blockbuster trying to rationalize both businesses will likely derail any near-term momentum. This seems positive for Best Buy.

Philips (PHG) misses on TV weakness

When Jabil (JBL) reported and said displays were soft and guided very weakly in that division, I suggested the weakness was Philips. Looks like I was right.

Philips is exiting the US consumer TV business in September. I would expect this miss will get looked through. GE is likely the bar by which they will be measured and this isn't the same kind of miss. The rest of their businesses seem relatively on plan and they're sticking to their 2010 guidance targets.

I'll use the weakness to get out of the short.

Micron (MU) upgrades coming?

NAND prices climbing, DRAM price hikes went through for second half of April, cut capex after they reported, quarter wasn't as bad as it could have been...

I don't see why we won't get upgrades here.

PS: I'm long some.

NAND spot continues to climb

It's rarely easy.

NAND spot prices have been moving up since Hynix announced they were cutting capacity on Apr 1. People tend to like Sandisk when spot prices move higher. My preference is Micron as their model is more levered to the commodity price. Sandisk buys NAND and sells cards. Higher spot prices without higher retail prices hurts their margins.

Hey, someone else cares about Sandisk's funky accounting. Weird.

Barron's wrote up a piece on SNDK detailing the er lack of details on Sandisk's off balance sheet fab accounting. The article focused on how keeping the fab spending off the books obfuscates the true cost of their aggressive expansion. I agree, though I tend to focus more on the way it affects gross margins and they're looking more at how it affects cash drain. Regardless, they've got a very bold capex plan for the next 3 years, with 4 billion dollars slated to go into the murky JV. The article comes to the conclusion that if Toshiba cut the amount of money they contributed to the JV, Sandisk would wind up owning over 50% of the venture. They wouldn't be that stupid. If Toshiba cut capex, so would Sandisk. C'mon, guys.

At any rate, it's good to know someone else has noticed that Sandisk's true operating results are very different from their reported numbers. Still don't like it here.

Taking some profit in Digital River (DRIV)

I'm offering half my position in Digital River at $35.65. I had suggested buying it at $31 after it blew up. I'm a little worried that Symantec, their biggest customer, has had another in a series of lousy quarters, which is why I'm selling half. I still love internet software distribution as a business and think they're a likely acquisition candidate, which is why I'm holding onto the rest.

Shorting Intel (INTC) here

I think they had to give some concessions to Dell in order to fully dislodge AMD. Historically, Intel paid some hefty fees to Dell for exclusivity. This deal was forged during the early years, under Michael Dell. Analyst notes recently indicate AMD has ostensibly lost the Dell business. As Michael Dell is back running the company, this probably means the old deal is back in place and that Intel will see some unexpected cost pressure as a result of it.

I think they're going to have to lower guidance when they report based on weaker desktop trends and overall economic funk. I've previously stated that I believe the company is fairly valued at $15. I also like the entry point on the chart. I laid some out at $22.17 just now.

NAND prices bounce

For what its worth, there's been a bounce in NAND spot prices. Sandisk investors have responded by bidding the stock up over the last week.