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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Panic sets in

I hate to write about the market. It's an irrational beast and I've come to the point in my career where I don't like to try to call it. As a good friend of mine says, its hard enough to get 1 stock right, why bother trying to call a hundred (there's 100 in the NDX which tends to be the index I watch as it's tech heavy.)

I'm going to get more bullish when the SOX gets to 370. I was negative when the SOX was 420. I think for the most part things are holding together better than valuations suggest.

I've started to get more aggressive on my longs. I bought NSM at 22.90 (new position), MRVL at 15.90 (re-entering), a lot of STX at 20.20 (adding).

There's a rumor out there that Goldman is going to have to do a big write off and people are horrified. Really? Wouldn't that just fit into the matrix? Frankly I'm shocked they haven't had one -- everyone else has.


Anonymous said...

come on Roy. Panic? How about a mere lack of blind euphoria? Panic? The market is down all of 8% YTD. This environment needs some panic, this market deserves some panic, this market should be panicked, HBOS just failed to raise more money, Fannie Mae should be in bankruptcy and a hedge fund income doesn't cover a tank of gas.

Roy Howard said...

I hear you, anonymous.

I'm not unaware of the reasons to be bearish. I think the industrial economy is headed for bad days. A lot of times I think I'm looking at an inversion of the bubble -- .commodities, if you will. And they're selling STX at 7* earnings. We're through the looking glass.

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