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Thursday, January 22, 2009

Marvell (MRVL) lowers the boom

Consensus is $690 mil. Mmm-kay. How about… $500 mil.

The hard drive business is pretty weak. Inventories in the channel have been coming down. Production is still being slashed – Seagate, for example, did $3 billion in September – now they're talking $1.8 billion for March. It's likely these are the worst of the cuts velocity-wise. The trajectory of the inevitable upturn remains in question but guidance is coming pretty hard. I'm curious to see where analysts put the out quarters – what kind of bounce-back they're willing to put on paper. We'll see.

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