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Monday, April 13, 2009

Linkage – April 13, 2009

Yahoo and Microsoft are talking again.  Funny how that happens every time Yahoo is about to lower guidance.

Seagate guides higher commensurate with a $430 mil offering.  They also guide the following quarter higher.  Anecdotally positive for the PC industry, where restocking orders have been bolstering component demand.

Taiwan Semiconductor reported March sales ahead of their prior guidance, showing an 18.4% m/m gain, bringing the quarter in at down 39% q/q versus their guidance of down 41-44%.  Digitimes reports accelerated order trends from Altera, AMD and Nvidia are driving near-term 12 inch fab expansion.  Citi, in a buy reiteration piece, suggests capex will come in down 20-30% y/y from last year’s 1.8 bil.  Semicap companies are generally suggesting declines of 40-50% for 2009 so this would be better than the mean for the industry at large.

Genworth Financial was declined admission to the TARP party.  Goldman is allegedly going to do a secondary to get clear of TARP…unless of course they’re the next black swan.

Robert Reich writes that our economic woes aren’t almost over and says they may have barely begun.


drfinn said...

I read that piece in Zero hedge over the weekend, and half of it went over my head. I couldn't get from what charts he was showing to the conclusion that the world was coming to an end.

Roy Howard said...

He seems to think Goldman is too big to succeed as opposed to too big to fail. It seems most of his posts regarding GS allege over-leverage. And on a comparative basis, that's pretty hard to argue with. I don't know how I got there exactly but the other day I was perusing (not fans, as you can imagine). They had an interesting item posted: ... the gist of it was that Goldman takes enormous risk for an extremely small return on capital. It also calls Goldman a ponzi scheme... albeit a legal one.

I have no edge as far as GS goes. I do see, though, that they have remarkably powerful former partners in high ranking positions within the government and seem to be a direct beneficiary of most policy actions thus far.

I've got no position in the stock presently.

drfinn said...

I saw this post at Zero Hedge today and it started to make more sense.

not sure how this works with GS over leverage but I can see how people belief in being Market Neutral/Hedge can get totally screwed if the liquidity dries up. I've lived that little world.

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