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Friday, April 24, 2009

Quick earnings recap – 4/24/09 ( $JNPR $MSFT $KLAC $SPWRA $AMZN $WDC )

Juniper (JNPR) reported in-line with their preannounced revenue guidance of 765 million.  The company indicated they saw increasing signs of stability and believe carrier capex budgets are firming up.  They exited the quarter with a book to bill over 1.  Despite the company’s talk of a more stable environment, pricing is under severe pressure and I believe capex budgets may in fact firm up but it will lead to lower gross margin sales from the company, or worse, from their competitors.  I’m offering stock at 21.3 short.

KLA Tencor (KLAC) had better orders (up 12% vs est 0) and gave guidance of +/- 20% for next quarter’s orders.  As we’ve discussed, foundries are spending near-term for the first time in a while and this will give them some cushion.  That said, the stock at $25.7 is about a buck and a half shy of 2* book and further improvement will likely need to become apparent to drive the stock significantly higher.

Microsoft (MSFT) missed revenue estimates by 1/2 a billion and made it sound like business was absolutely terrible.  Their online business showed significant weakness and its likely they will look to partner with Yahoo as soon as possible.  Yahoo probably gained some leverage from this report.  Despite the apparent agony Microsoft is suggesting in the economy, investors clearly see something they don’t as the stock is up a buck pre-market.

Sunpower (SPWRA), one of the larger manufacturers of solar panels, reported 30% below the consensus revenue figure.  Their guidance of 1.3 – 1.7 billion for the year seems absolutely impossible:

1Q 214.0  
2Q 256.8 20.00%
3Q 349.2 36.00%
4Q 475.0 36.00%

They’d have to grow 36% q/q in the last 2 quarters of the year to hit the low end they have out there – an extremely aggressive target.  Stranger things have happened but it seems like they’re really rolling the dice with this forecast.

Amazon (AMZN) beat yet again.  The company is fantastic and they’ve completely changed the way I shop.  I have to throw out too many valuation metrics to be a buyer of the stock.

Western Digital (WDC) beat the 12 cent estimate by 18 cents.  Impressive.  Assuming analyst estimates go to $2.30ish (where I saw one guy go already), the stock is trading at 10* earnings.

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