Lam Research (LRCX) Q4:2008 Results

Results were decent. Guidance is a horror show. They're guiding shipments down 15-25% to 490-530 mil. Revenue guidance of 535-565 mil is far below consensus of 615 mil. Gross margin guidance of 43% is down substantially -- admittedly, some of that is being blamed on the SEZ acquisition and they're suggesting its somewhat temporary in nature. GAAP EPS guidance of .32 - .42 is significantly below consensus of .88

Again, this is the realization quarter. It can get worse... but it's hard for it to accelerate worse.

Great management. Not good enough to offset 80% memory exposure.

Interestingly, they're still forecasting a NAND capex increase of 10% for this year. I wonder if that's too optimistic.

I'm short a bit. I hope I get to cover some at $37 tomorrow.