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Friday, November 14, 2008

NPD data shows surprising strength

Video games are showing surprising resilience according to the NPD data, coming in up 35% for October versus estimates of up 20-25%. The Nintendo (NTDOY) Wii is outselling the xbox by 2:1 and the PS3 by 4:1. Despite the malaise, the Wii with its $249 price point and family appeal grew 15% month over month.

It's interesting to note that Amazon (AMZN) is now showing the Wii available, something that I've never seen before. The Wii Fit remains on allocation. This says to me that Nintendo may be filling the pent up demand with availability. I think this likely leads to some softer sales next year. Go figure, the stock has been absolutely crushed already.

Guitar Hero: World Tour from Activision Blizzard (ATVI) was conspicuously absent from the top ten software titles. Considering this is a new title in their flagship line, concern is very warranted. Guitar Hero has created impossible comparisons for the company. I would expect their 2009 results will come in significantly below where they have guided. I don't like the stock at all.

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