Your email address:

Powered by FeedBlitz

Or add to your news reader: Add to My Yahoo! Add to Google

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

So many known unknowns

My wife was in Crate and Barrel earlier and she overheard one employee explaining to another how banks package credit and resell it. If there's one thing we can be thankful for in this crisis, it's that people are much more cognizant of the problem. When subprime blew up a year ago, no one really gave it a second thought. Cramer dismissed it. Banks told us it was a small problem. Little did they realize it would lead to bigger and badder things. I do think that it's a good sign in a way that every day people are discussing these issues. There is definitely a consensus opinion now that the economy will be troubled for a long time. Stocks look cheap and no one wants to own them because of the big unknowns. Many hedge fund managers are in cash and plan to stay there. T Boone Pickens was on TV saying he's not going to be going back into the market any time soon. This kind of psychology can show up at the bottom.

Applied Materials and Network Appliance both reported okay numbers tonight and opted to give no guidance. Both always have given guidance in the past. The only thing visible from these reports is the lack of visibility. People are scared -- and not just investors. Managements don't have a clue what to think.

One of the best hedge fund managers I know once told me that Intel blowing up is typically a bottoming event. Of course, the world was different then. He's down 20% now. I don't know if those rules apply anymore. We'll see how Intel acts tomorrow. It went out down a dollar from the close in after-hours trading.

No comments:

Blog Archive