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Monday, February 4, 2008

A bigger buncha Yahoos

Semel left. That's obviously an admission that his position was indefensible.

The company is talking about getting out of music. It wasn't working particularly well anyway.

The private equity plan (if there was one) would have to be spin off the media assets to a larger entity (NBC Universal has been floated as a possible buyer) and outsourcing of the search business to Google (which would be great for margins but lousy for revenues). Alibaba and Yahoo Japan already have "exit" paths as they're publicly traded vehicles.

The media is dismissive of another large media buyer as most of them have their hands full and Yahoo is a whole mess of distraction for most of them.

The net of it is that Google is the big winner in almost any scenario here. If the deal takes forever (which it will), they look like a safe port in the storm. If the private equity scenario goes through, that's all win for them. If the deal doesn't happen, Yahoo and Microsoft will have been dissected to the point that it will be clear Google is the better choice.

Blodget is all over this and thinks Microsoft takes Yahoo uncontested and that the deal will be a disaster over time. His blog on this subject is extensive and covers all the bases.

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