Another log on the cell phone fire

National Semiconductor (NSM) makes a lot of sense on the short side as their business is very tied to cell phones and their gross margins seem to have peaked in the last couple of quarters. Order guidance was better than expected when they reported but the cell phone market has clearly deteriorated over the last several weeks. They're not going to hit the 440-460 mil guidance they have out there and margins will likely disappoint. The stock could decline 10-20% by the time they've reported this quarter's results.

I still really don't like Texas Instruments (TXN) as I expect several quarters of underperformance. They're a lagging indicator and they're not seeing the pronounced weakness that's coming… yet.

I also don't like Nokia (NOK) and I'm an ass for trying to trade around the position. Expect them to miss margins and probably have to reset the bar when they report.