Capex estimates coming down yet again

This time Lehman lowers their memory capex estimate from down 15-20% for this year to down 20-25%. They say consensus is down 15 but I think its probably lower than that.

I think people underestimate the amount of memory capex that has gone in over the last 3 years -- order books have never been so memory-bloated and business mix hasn't been this skewed to memory spending in over a decade. So I agree with Lehman directionally. I just think it goes a lot lower than they do.

I think it's a mistake to try to pick bottoms in capex with memory producers building inventory due to a reluctance to sell below cash cost. Lehman says they like LRCX and VSEA due to limited downside and low expectations. There's still downside left, stay away.