Research In Motion, Nvidia, Yahoo!, carrier capex

Research In Motion (RIMM)

Goldman Sachs raises estimates for the current quarter from 3.18 bil and 80 cents to 3.41 bil and 87 cents.  Their subscriber estimate for the current Q goes from 2.8 mil to 3.3 mil, above company guidance.  Device shipment estimate goes from 7.1 to 7.7 mil.  2010 estimates go from $13.0 bil and $3.41 (below consensus) to 14.9 bil and 3.90 (above consensus).  Goldman was emboldened by Verizon’s earnings reported yesterday morning.

 

Nvidia (NVDA)

Barclays says down 50% guidance is too conservative – the company is gaining market share according to industry survey data.

The Skew:  True.  This is one of those companies that really obliterated guidance and can start to show improvement relatively quickly – perhaps even without an industry recovery.  Marvell is likely in this category also.

Yahoo (YHOO)

Good sign that Yahoo has started to beat their own EBITDA forecasts again – second quarter in a row.  Revenue declined y/y for the first time since 2001.  Cost cutting led to upside in EBITDA.  Bad sign that they’re guiding the street down on revenues and EBITDA for Q1. 

The Skew:  It’s cheap but crappy and subject to rumors of strategic initiatives involving other companies that need to band together to fight off Google’s unrelenting market share gains.  2009 guidance appears to be missing from my press release.  Oh, right, they didn’t give any.  Without a specific catalyst, cheap stocks tend to get cheaper as they’re sold to raise cash to buy better opportunities.  I’m just not that interested in this perpetual turnaround.

 

Carrier capex (JNPR, CIEN, CSCO, ADTN)

Credit Suisse adds up capex forecasts and thinks they’re too high.  It’s a 120 page report.  Skimming it, he’s got 2009 capex declining 10.2% and 2010 down .4% in aggregate.  Wireline declines 13%, almost twice the wireless rate of –7.6%.  He cites planned reductions by Verizon and AT&T of 5-10% for 2009 and a worldwide constriction of credit availability and capital markets holding everyone else back.  He cuts numbers in everything but says ADTN and CIEN have the most exposure to downward revisions in the carrier market as they’re leveraged to North America which is particularly weak.